Archive for April, 2016

A Bridge Question

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , on April 3, 2016 by telescoper

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Catching up on all the important journals after a short holiday I found the above deal in the Bridge column of The Oldie.

I’m not sure I would have the courage to bid to 7NT as South – 7♦ seems a more likely contract – but in the game described that’s what happened.

West led the 8♦, which in my view plays directly into South’s hands. Declarer already has 12 tricks guaranteed, and the 13th needed for a Grand Slam comes easily if West holds the Q♣, which is indeed the case. However, South didn’t even need the club finesse to succeed in taking all 13 because East discarded two clubs as South played off the obvious Diamond and Spade winners, so the Queen fell to either the A♣ or the K♣ on a club lead.

My question, though, as a mediocre player, is why did West lead a diamond?  South had opened with 1♦, and North had jumped to 3♦  before South’s slam try with 4NT (Blackwood). Against 7♦ West’s would have been a standard defensive lead of a trump, but in No Trumps surely it is better here to follow convention and lead the 4th highest of the longest suit, ie the 8♥? South would then have to play the Ace from dummy, which at least destroys one line of communication as the A♦ can no longer provide an entry to dummy.

I think Declarer still makes the contract but my question is, against this lead, does South have to try the club finesse?

Wrote for Luck

Posted in Uncategorized on April 1, 2016 by telescoper

Some interesting comments on frequencies in the National Lottery. I stopped playing when it went up to £2. I figured a pound wasn’t too high a price for a small frisson of excitement when the draw was taking place, but two pounds was too much…

quantixed's avatarquantixed

Fans of probability love random processes. And lotteries are a great example of random number generation.

The UK National Lottery ran in one format from 19/11/1994 until 7/10/2015. I was talking to somebody who had played the same set of numbers in all of these lottery draws and I wondered what the net gain or loss has been for them over this period.

The basic format is that people buy a line of numbers (6 numbers, from 1-49) and try to match the six numbers (from 49 balls numbered 1-49) drawn from a machine. The aim is to match all six balls and win the jackpot. The odds of this are fantastically small (1 in ~14 million), but if they are the only person matching these numbers they can take away £3-5 million. There are prizes for matching three numbers (1 in ~56 chance), four numbers (1 in ~1,032),  five numbers (1…

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