After last night’s Eurovision 2023 extravaganza I thought I’d work off my hangover by summarizing the voting. The vote is split into 50% jury votes and 50% televotes from audiences sitting at home, drunk. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the juries do their scores based on the dress rehearsals on Friday so they are not based on the performances the viewers see.
Each country/jury has 58 points to award, shared among 10 countries: 1-8, 10 and 12 for the top score. Countries that didn’t make it to the final (e.g. Ireland) also get to vote. For the televotes only there is also a “rest-of-the-world” vote for non-Eurovision countries.
This system can deliver very harsh results because only 10 songs can get points from a given source. It’s possible to be judged the 11th best across the board and score nil!
Here are the final scores in a table:
Rank | Country | Overall | Televotes | Jury | Diff | Rank Diff |
1 | Sweden | 583 | 243 | 340 | +97 | +1 |
2 | Finland | 526 | 376 | 150 | -226 | -1 |
3 | Israel | 362 | 185 | 177 | -8 | +3 |
4 | Italy | 350 | 174 | 176 | +2 | +3 |
5 | Norway | 268 | 216 | 52 | -168 | -14 |
6 | Ukraine | 243 | 189 | 54 | -145 | -11 |
7 | Belgium | 182 | 55 | 127 | +72 | +5 |
8. | Estonia | 168 | 22 | 146 | +124 | +14 |
9. | Australia | 151 | 21 | 130 | +109 | +14 |
10. | Czechia | 129 | 35 | 94 | +59 | +7 |
11. | Lithuania | 127 | 46 | 81 | +35 | +4 |
12. | Cyprus | 126 | 58 | 68 | +10 | -2 |
13. | Croatia | 123 | 112 | 11 | -101 | -18 |
14. | Armenia | 122 | 53 | 69 | +16 | +1 |
15. | Austria | 120 | 16 | 104 | +88 | +13 |
16. | France | 104 | 50 | 54 | +4 | -2 |
17. | Spain | 100 | 5 | 95 | +90 | +17 |
18. | Moldova | 96 | 76 | 20 | -56 | -11 |
19. | Poland | 93 | 81 | 12 | -69 | -16 |
20. | Switzerland | 92 | 31 | 61 | +30 | +4 |
21. | Slovenia | 78 | 45 | 33 | -12 | -3 |
22. | Albania | 76 | 59 | 17 | -42 | -11 |
23. | Portugal | 59 | 16 | 43 | +27 | +4 |
24. | Serbia | 30 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 0 |
25. | United Kingdom | 24 | 9 | 22 | +13 | 0 |
26. | Germany | 18 | 15 | 3 | -12 | -2 |
Going into the last allocation of televotes, Finland were in in the lead thanks to their own huge televote, but Sweden managed to win despite a lower televote allocation because of their huge score on the jury votes. Had the scores been based on the jury votes alone, Sweden would have won by a mile, and if only on the televotes Finland would have won. Anyway, rules is rules…
There are some interestingly odd features in the above dataset. For example, Switzerland ranked 20th overall, but were ranked 18th and 14th by televotes and jury votes respectively. There are also cases in which a higher score in one set of votes leads to a lower rank, and vice-versa. Croatia were hammered by the jury votes, ranking 25th out of 26 on that basis but would have been 7th based on televotes alone; hence their -18 in the last column. A similar fate befell Norway. By contrast, Spain were last (26th) on the televotes but placed 9th in the pecking order by the juries; they ended up in 17th place.
Anyway, you can see that there are considerable differences between the scores and ranks based on the public vote and the jury votes. I have therefore deployed my vast knowledge of statistics to calculate the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient between the ranks based on televotes only and based on jury votes only. The result is 0.26. Using my trusty statistical tables, noting that n=26, and wearing a frequentist hat for simplicity, I find that there is no significant evidence for correlation between the two sets of ranks. I can’t say I’m surprised.
The apparent randomness of the scoring process introduces a considerable amount of churn into the system, as demonstrated by Mel Giedroyc in this, the iconic image of last night’s events.
At least I think that’s what she’s doing…
Anyway, for the record, I should say that my favourite three songs were Albania (22nd), Portugal (23rd) and Austria (15th). Maybe one day I’ll pick a song that makes it onto the left-hand half of the screen!
P.S. Eurovision 2024 will be in Sweden, which is nice because it will be the 50th anniversary of ABBA winning with Waterloo. I’ll never tire of boring people with the fact that a mere 15 years after ABBA won, I walked across the very same stage at the Brighton Centre to collect my doctorate from Sussex University…
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