Archive for January, 2017

Do you have Confidence in the Teaching Excellence Framework?

Posted in Bad Statistics with tags , , , , on January 4, 2017 by telescoper

The  Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) is, along with a number of other measures in the 2016 Higher Education and Research Bill, causing a lot of concern in academic circles (see, e.g., this piece by Stephen Curry). One of the intentions of the TEF is to use relatively simple metrics to gauge “teaching quality” in higher education institutions. On top of the fundamental questions of exactly what “teaching quality” means and how it might be measured in any reliable way, there is now another worry: the whole TEF system is to be run by people who are statistically illiterate.

To demonstrate this assertion I refer you to this excerpt from the official TEF documentation:

tef

The highlighted “explanation” of what a confidence interval means is false. It’s not slightly misleading. It’s not poorly worded. It’s just false.

I don’t know who from HEFCE wrote the piece above, but it’s clearly someone who does not understand the basic concepts of statistics.

I can’t imagine what kind of garbled nonsense will come out of the TEF if this is the level of understanding displayed by the people running it.  That garbage will also be fed into the university league tables with potentially devastating effects on individuals, departments and institutions, so my gripe is not just about semantics – this level of statistical illiteracy could have very serious consequences for Higher Education in the UK.

Perhaps HEFCE should call in some experts in statistics to help? Oh, no. I forgot. This country has had enough of experts…

 

 

 

 

Perihelion and the Seasons

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , , , , on January 4, 2017 by telescoper

Today the Earth is at the point on its orbit at which it is at its closest to the Sun, i.e. at its perihelion. To be precise, this event takes place at 14.18 GMT today 4th January 2017; aphelion (the furthest distance from the Sun) is  at 20.11 GMT on July 3rd 2017. You can find a list of times and dates of perihelion and aphelion for future years  here.

It surprises me how many people think that the existence of the seasons has something to do with the variation of the Earth’s distance from the Sun as it moves in its orbit. The fact that perihelion occurs in the depth of winter should convince anyone living in the Northern hemisphere that this just can’t be the case, as should the fact that it’s summer in the Southern hemisphere while it is winter in the North.

The real reason for the existence of seasons is the tilt of the Earth’s axis of rotation, as explained in a nice little video here. I used to do a little demonstration with a torch (flashlight to American readers) to illustrate this when I taught first-year astrophysics. If you shine a torch horizontally at a piece of card it will illuminate a patch of the card. Keep the torch at the same distance but tilt the card and you will see the illuminated patch increase in size. The torch is radiating the same amount of energy but in the second case that energy is spread over a larger area than in the first. This means that the energy per unit area incident on the card is decreases when the card is tilted. It is that which is responsible for  winter being  colder than summer. In the summer the sun is higher in the sky (on average) than in winter. From this argument you can infer that the winter solstice (which passed on 21st December), not the perihelion, is the relevant astronomical indicator of winter.

That is not to say that the shape of the Earth’s orbit has no effect on temperatures. The eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit is e=0.017. Estimate the percentage difference in the flux of energy arriving at Earth from the Sun at the extremes of its orbit (i.e. at perihelion and aphelion).

I leave it as an exercise for the student that the fractional difference in distance between perihelion and aphelion in an elliptical orbit is 2e. The fractional change in flux received between the two extremes is thus 4e or about 6.8%, which is indeed a significant in the insolation at the Earth’s surface.

Assuming (for the sake of illustration only)  that the Earth behaves like a black body  then the incident flux would go as the fourth power of the temperature, which means that the temperature should change by about 1.7% between perihelion and aphelion. Taking the mean temperature to be about 300 K the difference should be around 5° C.

Ignoring any effects other than insolation this means that summer in the Southern hemisphere (when the Earth is at perihelion) should be significantly warmer than summer in the Northern hemisphere (when the Earth is at aphelion).

Things are not as simple as that, however, because the Earth’s surface possesses a significant North-South asymmetry: there is a much larger fraction of ocean in the Southern hemisphere, for example, which could be responsible for moderating. The climate is a non-linear system that involves circulating air and ocean currents that respond in complicated ways and on different timescales not just to insolation but to many other parameters, including atmospheric composition (especially water vapour).

The perihelion effect on summer temperatures can be readily verified by observations of Mars, which has no oceans and a much thinner, drier atmosphere, as well as a much more eccentric orbit (e=0.0934).

 

P.S. Of course, at perihelion the Earth is not only closest to the sun but also moving with its greatest orbit speed. That no doubt explains why January is often very windy…

P.P.S. That was a joke.

 

The Land of Might-Have-Been

Posted in Film, Music with tags , , , , , on January 3, 2017 by telescoper

Over the Christmas break Composer of the Week on BBC Radio 3 featured Ivor Novello. Ivor Novello was considered old-fashioned even in his own lifetime, but I have no shame in admitting that I love his music, which I think is beautifully crafted. Ivor Novello was born David Ivor Davies, in Cardiff. In fact the house in which he was born is very close to mine:

ivor-novello-s-house-on-cowbridge-road-east-cardiff-616323421

Anyway, the Radio programme about Ivor Novello encouraged me to put on a DVD of the fine film Gosford Park, the script for which, written by Julian Fellowes, won an Oscar. In the movie, Ivor Novello is played by Jeremy Northam who sings a number of songs with his brother Christopher accompanying him at the piano, including this one. With music by Ivor Novello and lyrics by Edward Moore, it conveys that sense of longing for a better world that many of us are feeling right now.

Somewhere there’s another land
different from this world below,
far more mercifully planned
than the cruel place we know.
Innocence and peace are there–
all is good that is desired.
Faces there are always fair;
love grows never old nor tired.

We shall never find that lovely
land of might-have-been.
I can never be your king nor
you can be my queen.
Days may pass and years may pass
and seas may lie between–
We shall never find that lovely
land of might-have-been.

Sometimes on the rarest nights
comes the vision calm and clear,
gleaming with unearthly lights
on our path of doubt and fear.
Winds from that far land are blown,
whispering with secret breath–
hope that plays a tune alone,
love that conquers pain and death.

Shall we ever find that lovely
land of might-have-been?
Will I ever be your king or you
at last my queen?
Days may pass and years may pass
and seas may lie between–
Shall we ever find that lovely
land of might-have-been?

Back to Work…

Posted in Biographical, The Universe and Stuff with tags , , on January 3, 2017 by telescoper

Well, the Christmas break is over at Cardiff University and I’m back in the office of the Data Innovation Research Institute. To be honest, it’s rather quiet around here. Most staff seem to be still on holiday. There are a few students around, mainly international ones. This is actually a revision week at Cardiff University in advance of the mid-year examinations which start next week and go on for a fortnight. After that we’ll be back into teaching. I’ll be doing a Masters-level module on The Physics of the Early Universe in the forthcoming term, and I’m very much looking forward to it.

The outcomes of the annual round of consolidated grants administered by the Astronomy Grants Panel of Science and Technology Facilities Council were announced just before Christmas, with success for some and disappointment for others. I only have anecdotal evidence from personal contacts but it seems to have been a tough round, which wouldn’t surprise me because the funding for basic scientific research in the UK has been flat in cash terms for many years now, and is gradually being eroded by inflation. It’s a tough climate but when, in a couple of years, we lose access to all forms of EU funding things will get even tougher…

Anyway, as new grants are announced and old ones terminated, this is a busy time of year for postdocs (who are largely funded by research grants) seeking new positions. I’ve spent most of the day so far writing references for applicants and will return to that task for a couple of hours after lunch. It’s particularly tough on those whose positions lapse at the end of March who only got notice just before Christmas that their existing funding is not going to be renewed. There’s little time in such a position to get a new job sorted, but on the other hand, new grants are starting from 1st April so there are opportunities out there. It’s not easy to respond if you have a family or other commitments, though.

Another thing that happened just before Christmas was that the Data Innovation Research Institute here at Cardiff University announced its first tranche of “seedcorn” grants to foster interdisciplinary research. These grants are quite small in cash terms but it is hoped that at least some of them will help develop substantial projects by bringing together parts of the University that don’t previously collaborate enough. Congratulations to those whose proposals were selected, and commiserations to those who were unsuccessful.

I was pleased that my proposal – together with Professor Nikolai Leonenko of the School of Mathematics – was one of the successful bids. That means that, probably in the spring, we will be organizing a short workshop relating to the analysis and modelling of astrophysical data defined on the sphere, a topic which has interesting mathematical aspects as well as very practical implications for astronomy and cosmology. We’ll be starting to organize that soon, which adds another item to my to-do list, but it should be a fun conference when it happens.

Before you ask: yes, I do work for the Data Innovation Research Institute but because I was an applicant I recused myself from judging the applications in case there was any perception of a conflict of interest. So there.

Most of my work between now and the start of teaching term is going to be devoted to a couple of MSc courses we’re planning to launch this year, but I’ll write more about them – and plug them shamelessly – when they’re all formally announced and ready to go!

And with that I’d better get back to work again.

Exploring Cosmic Origins with CORE: Inflation [CEA]

Posted in The Universe and Stuff on January 3, 2017 by telescoper

More on the capabilities of CORE…

arxiver's avatararXiver

http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.08270

We forecast the scientific capabilities of CORE, a proposed CMB space satellite submitted in response to the ESA fifth call for a medium-size mission opportunity, to improve our understanding of cosmic inflation. The CORE mission will map the CMB anisotropies in temperature and polarization in 19 frequency channels spanning the range 60-600 GHz. CORE will have an aggregate noise sensitivity of $1.7 mu$ K$cdot ,$arcmin and an angular resolution of 5′ at 200 GHz. We explore the impact of telescope size and noise sensitivity on the inflation science return by making forecasts for several instrumental configurations. This study assumes that the lower and higher frequency channels suffice to remove foreground contaminations and complements other related studies of component separation and systematic effects, which will be reported in other papers of the series “Exploring Cosmic Origins with CORE.” We forecast the capability to determine key inflationary parameters, to lower the…

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Exploring Cosmic Origins with CORE: Cosmological Parameters [CEA]

Posted in The Universe and Stuff on January 3, 2017 by telescoper

Here’s an arXiver post I missed before Christmas about CORE – an exciting proposed for new CMB mission with a focus on polarization

arxiver's avatararXiver

http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.00021

We forecast the main cosmological parameter constraints achievable with the CORE space mission which is dedicated to mapping the polarisation of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). CORE was recently submitted in response to ESA’s fifth call for medium-sized mission proposals (M5). Here we report the results from our pre-submission study of the impact of various instrumental options, in particular the telescope size and sensitivity level, and review the great, transformative potential of the mission as proposed. Specifically, we assess the impact on a broad range of fundamental parameters of our Universe as a function of the expected CMB characteristics, with other papers in the series focusing on controlling astrophysical and instrumental residual systematics. In this paper, we assume that only a few central CORE frequency channels are usable for our purpose, all others being devoted to the cleaning of astrophysical contaminants. On the theoretical side, we assume LCDM as…

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The problem with experts

Posted in Uncategorized on January 1, 2017 by telescoper

A thoughtful piece, well worth a reblog. Especially for the quote from Swift:

“Reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion, which by reasoning he never acquired.”

Jolyon Maugham's avatarWaiting for Godot

Among my New Year’s Eve companions was a bow-tied academic sociologist specialising in game theory.

The fun we had.

He told me about his use of the Monty Hall problem with his students. You probably know it but (from wikipedia):

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

The answer, for those who don’t know the problem, is that by switching you double your chances of winning the car. And you can prove it mathematically.

When Marilyn vos Savant, who originally publicised the problem, gave that answer he was beseiged…

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Happy New Year!

Posted in Biographical on January 1, 2017 by telescoper

I was waiting for WordPress to publish the annual statistical summary page for this blog, like it has every year since I started here in 2008 but they seem to have discontinued that practice so I’ll just post the following message instead:

On this I occasion I am reminded of the following reassuring words from the diary of Tsar Nicholas II:

“The year 1916 was cursed; 1917 will surely be better!”

PS. I checked the blog stats myself. I got about 375,000 hits this year, just over a thousand a day, with just under 200,000 unique views. That’s a bit down on last year but that’s not surprsing as I’ve had more gaps in transmission than in previous years.

In 2016 there were 2427 comments on this blog, up about 10% on last year.

Altogether since this blog started in 2008, it has been viewed 2,958,117 times so I should get to 3 million by February!