The Great Curve II: Citation distributions and reverse engineering the JIF

Posted in Uncategorized on January 5, 2016 by telescoper

Here’s a lengthy study of Journal Impact Factors. It’s mainly about cell biology journals but I think this across all scientific disciplines. The JIF is so flawed as to be meaningless but this discussion suggests that the situation is even worse than that, with some advertised JIFs being wrong…

quantixed's avatarquantixed

There have been calls for journals to publish the distribution of citations to the papers they publish (123). The idea is to turn the focus away from just one number – the Journal Impact Factor (JIF) – and to look at all the data. Some journals have responded by publishing the data that underlie the JIF (EMBO J, Peer JRoyal Soc, Nature Chem). It would be great if more journals did this. Recently, Stuart Cantrill from Nature Chemistry actually went one step further and compared the distribution of cites at his journal with other chemistry journals. I really liked this post and it made me think that I should just go ahead and harvest the data for cell biology journals and post it.

This post is in two parts. First, I’ll show the data for 22 journals. They’re broadly cell biology, but there’s something…

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Nature and the Open Journal of Astrophysics

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , on January 4, 2016 by telescoper

As I prepare to return to Sussex for the new term, I find that Nature News & Comment has published a piece on a pet project I’ve blogged about on a number of occasions, The Open Journal of Astrophysics.

There are a couple of sceptical comments quoted in the piece, which is fair enough. Such views are not at all unexpected. This is a new venture and there are bound to be people who prefer to stick to the established publishing channels. I and the others involved in the Open Journal think traditional journals have long since had their day. We’ll just have to see how many others agree!

A Wet New Year in Cardiff

Posted in Uncategorized on January 3, 2016 by telescoper

I haven’t been too well for the first few days of 2016, and haven’t been out much since New Year’s Eve. It’s been chucking it down most of the time anyway! I was feeling a bit better this morning and there was a gap in the rain so I went for a walk and did a few errands.

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The River Taff is swollen because of the rain. Those are small trees partly submerged in the foreground, so the river is up about a couple of metres. There’s no imminent danger of flooding. I have seen it much higher than this. There seems to be more rain in store though.

I’m travelling back to Brighton on Tuesday barring any problems with the trains. I have a lot to do when I get back to the office. I have to lecture again next term, but there’s also an important grant application to put together, not to mention the official launch of the Open Journal..

Just how mild has this December been?

Posted in Uncategorized on January 1, 2016 by telescoper

In case you hadn’t noticed…

Michael de Podesta's avatarProtons for Breakfast

A great deal of rain has fallen on some parts of the UK this month (December 2015) A great deal of rain has fallen on some parts of the UK this month (December 2015) (Source : BBC)

It’s been exceptionally warm this month.

We will have to wait a day or two for the various agencies to compile their annual reports, but let me précis the results for you:

  • 2015 has been ‘warm’.

And this  warmth has been evident where I live and work, in Teddington.

Analysing the data from my weather station a day early, I have compared my local results with the ‘climate normals’ for nearby Kingston upon Thames.

‘Climate Normals’ are the average values of various meteorological quantities over (typically) 30 year periods, in this case from 1981 to 2010.

Graph showing the 'Climate Normals' for the daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Kingston upon Thames. Also shown are data from my weather station for September, October, November and December. Graph showing the ‘Climate Normals’ for the daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Kingston upon Thames. Also shown are the averaged data from my weather station for September, October, November and December. Click the graph for a larger…

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Song At Year’s Turning

Posted in Uncategorized on January 1, 2016 by telescoper

Shelley dreamed it. Now the dream decays.
The props crumble; the familiar ways
Are stale with tears trodden underfoot.
The heart’s flower withers at the root.
Bury it then, in history’s sterile dust.
The slow years shall tame your tawny lust.

Love deceived him; what is there to say
The mind brought you by a better way
To this despair? Lost in the world’s wood
You cannot stanch the bright menstrual blood.
The earth sickens; under naked boughs
The frost comes to barb your broken vows.

Is there blessing? Light’s peculiar grace
In cold splendour robes this tortured place
For strange marriage. Voices in the wind
Weave a garland where a mortal sinned.
Winter rots you; who is there to blame?
The new grass shall purge you in its flame.

by R.S. Thomas (1913-2000)

Happy New Year!

Posted in Uncategorized on December 31, 2015 by telescoper

Although midnight is hours away here in Cardiff I realise that it’s already 2016 in some parts of the world so I thought I’d get my New Year’s greeting in early!

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I have to admit that 2015 hasn’t exactly been the best year of my life, either personally or professionally, but that’s all the more reason to think positively about the future.

To all the readers of this blog, wherever you may be, I wish you and your loved ones peace and good fortune for the year ahead.

2015 in review

Posted in Uncategorized on December 31, 2015 by telescoper

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2015 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

The Louvre Museum has 8.5 million visitors per year. This blog was viewed about 410,000 times in 2015. If it were an exhibit at the Louvre Museum, it would take about 18 days for that many people to see it.

Click here to see the complete report.

Bridge Puzzlement

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , on December 30, 2015 by telescoper

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I don’t often have time to peruse the Bridge columns but this one by Maureen Hiron in today’s Independent caught my eye.

South ended up as declarer in 3 No Trumps, against which the standard lead by West would be the 8♥ (4th highest of longest suit). This turns out very badly for the defence, however, as it makes South’s Queen into a winner. Keeping the A♥ in place to prevent a heart attack (!), South can then easily win 12 tricks, losing only one (to the K♦).

In the game discussed in the column. West (Zia Manhood, actually) correctly surmised that South’s No Trump bid indicated that he had a defence against hearts and tried an unorthodox lead of a low club. South played the Ace from dummy to win then crossed back to his hand by playing a spade from dummy to the A♠.

So far so good, two tricks down. Seven to go…

However South now tried a diamond finesse (perhaps confused by West’s earlier bid of 2♦ which did not indicate a diamond holding but a weak hand with a long major suit, ie hearts). Anyway the finesse fails because East has the King. South then has to look on as the defence win four club tricks;.the contract fails by one.

There’s no doubt that the club lead is better than hearts here but what puzzled  me at first is why South went for the diamond finesse straight away, as it seemed very risky to me.

Looking at South’s hand and dummy only it is clear that there are 5 spade tricks to be taken unless the remainder split 5-0; South’s cross to hand at trick 2 shows this is not the case. Taking the opening trick plus five spade tricks leaves South only needing three more tricks to make the contract. There are however only two obvious winners remaining: A♦ in dummy and A♥ in hand.  South needs either the diamond finesse mentioned above or to somehow turn Q♥ into a winner. The finesse doesn’t work in that case either and West is highly unlikely to lead a heart into South’s tenace given that he didn’t lead one at the start!

It seems to me that East and West have four club tricks and one Diamond trick in the bag so South must go one off after that lead, unless of course East had been foolish enough to discard a club on one or more of South’s spade winners….

..  and only an idiot like me would do that!

PS. Standard advice would be for South to duck the first club trick, but it doesn’t help in this case.

Moeen, Man of the Match

Posted in Cricket with tags , , , on December 30, 2015 by telescoper

He may not have won this year’s Beard of the Year award but Moeen Ali did his best to compensate this morning by taking three quick wickets as England bowled out South Africa to win the First Test in Durban by the impressive margin of 241 runs.

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With overall figures of 7 for 116 including the key wicket of AB De Villiers early on this morning, he thoroughly deserved his Man Of The Match award. Beard power strikes again!

South Africa had been set a total of  416 with a day and a half to play (140 overs). Some were arguing that Cook should have declared but I think he was right in batting on. I said so on Twitter and my comment made it onto the bbc Web feed

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I felt an earlier declaration would have been reckless and unnecessary: There was plenty of time to bowl out South Africa on a turning wicket so why give them even a sniff of victory?

As it turned out there was no declaration anyway: England were all out for 326 in their second innings. South Africa batted well to start with, scoring steadily at five an over, but lost key wickets to close on 136-4 last night. Had they been able to bat all the last  day they would not only have saved the game but have had a chance if winning it, but once De Villiers was out, in Moeen’s first over, South Africa were doomed.

Well played Moeen and the rest of the England team!

Storm Warnings

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , on December 28, 2015 by telescoper

The glass has been falling all the afternoon, 
And knowing better than the instrument 
What winds are walking overhead, what zone 
Of grey unrest is moving across the land, 
I leave the book upon a pillowed chair 
And walk from window to closed window, watching 
Boughs strain against the sky

And think again, as often when the air 
Moves inward toward a silent core of waiting, 
How with a single purpose time has traveled 
By secret currents of the undiscerned 
Into this polar realm. Weather abroad 
And weather in the heart alike come on 
Regardless of prediction.

Between foreseeing and averting change 
Lies all the mastery of elements 
Which clocks and weatherglasses cannot alter. 
Time in the hand is not control of time, 
Nor shattered fragments of an instrument 
A proof against the wind; the wind will rise,
We can only close the shutters.

I draw the curtains as the sky goes black 
And set a match to candles sheathed in glass 
Against the keyhole draught, the insistent whine 
Of weather through the unsealed aperture. 
This is our sole defense against the season; 
These are the things we have learned to do 
Who live in troubled regions.

by Adrienne Rich (1929-2012)