Archive for Cosmology

Has Planck closed the window on the Early Universe?

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , , , , , on April 7, 2013 by telescoper

A combination of circumstances – including being a bit poorly – has made me rather late in getting around to reading the papers released by the Planck consortium a couple of weeks ago. I’ve had a bit of time this Sunday so I decided to have a look. Naturally I went straight for, er, paper No. 24, which you can find on the arXiv, here.

I picked this one to start with because it’s about primordial non-Gaussianity. This is an important topic because the simplest theories of cosmological inflation predict the generation of small-amplitude irregularities in the early Universe that form a statistically homogeneous and isotropic Gaussian random field. This means that the perturbations (usually defined in terms of departures of the metric from a pure Robertson-Walker form) are defined by probability distributions which are invariant under translations and rotations in 3D space.

In a nutshell, such perturbations arise quite simply in inflationary cosmology as zero-point oscillations of a scalar quantum field, in a very similar way the Gaussian distributions that arise from the quantized harmonic oscillator. Assuming the fluctuations are small in amplitude the scalar field evolves according to

\ddot{\Phi} +3H\dot{\Phi} + V^{\prime}(\Phi),

which is similar to that describing a ball rolling down a potential V, under the action of a force given by the derivative V^{\prime}, opposed by a “frictional” force depending on the ball’s speed; in the inflationary context the frictional force depends on the expansion rate H(\Phi, \dot{\Phi}). If the slope of the potential is relatively shallow then there is a slow-rolling regime during which the kinetic energy of the field is negligible compared to its potential energy; the term in \ddot{\phi} then becomes negligible in the above equation. The universe then enters a near-exponential phase of expansion, during which the small Gaussian quantum fluctuations in \Phi become Gaussian classical metric perturbations.

On the one hand, Gaussian fluctuations are great for a theorist because so many of their statistical properties can be calculated analytically: I played around a lot with them in my PhD thesis many moons ago, long before Planck, in fact long before any fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background were measured at all! The problem is that if we keep finding that everything is consistent with the Gaussian hypothesis then we have problems.

The point about this slow-rolling regime is that it is an attractor solution that resembles the physical description of a body falling through the air: eventually such a body reaches a terminal velocity defined by the balance between gravity and air resistance, but independent of how high and how fast it started. The problem is that if you want to know where a body moving at terminal velocity started falling from, you’re stumped (unless you have other evidence). All dynamical memory of the initial conditions is lost when you reach the attractor solution. The problem for early Universe cosmologists is similar. If everything we measure is consistent with having been generated during a simple slow-rolling inflationary regime, then there is no way of recovering any information about what happened beforehand because nothing we can observe remembers it. The early Universe will remain a closed book forever.

So what does all this have to do with Planck? Well, one of the most important things that the Planck collaboration has been looking for is evidence of non-Gaussianity that could be indicative of primordial physics more complicated than that included in the simplest inflationary models (e.g.  multiple scalar fields, more complicated dynamics, etc).  Departures from the standard model might just keep the window on the early Universe open.

A simple way of defining a parameter that describes the level of non-Gaussianity is as follows:

\phi = \phi_{G} + f_{NL} \left( \phi_{G}^2 -< \phi_{G}^2 > \right)

the parameter f_{NL} describes a quadratic contribution to the overall metric perturbation \phi: you can think of this as being like a power series expansion of the total fluctuation in terms of a Gaussian component \phi_{G}; the term in angle brackets is just there to ensure the whole thing averages to zero. This definition of non-Gaussianity is not the only one possible, but it’s the simplest and it’s the one for which Planck has produced the most dramatic result:

f_{NL}=2.7 \pm 5.8,

which is clearly consistent with zero. If this doesn’t look impressive, bear in mind that the typical fluctuation in the metric inferred from cosmological measurements is of order 10^{-5}. The quadratic terms are therefore of order 10^{-10}, so the upper limit on the level of non-Gaussianity allowed by Planck really is minuscule. This is one of the reasons why some people have described the best-fitting model emerging from Planck as the Maximally Boring Universe

So it looks like only very unwise investors will be buying shares in cosmological non-Gaussianity at least in the short-term. More fundamentally we may be approaching the limit of what we can learn about inflation in particular, or even the early Universe in general, using the traditional techniques of observational cosmology. But there remain very intriguing questions that may yet shed light on the pre-inflationary epoch. Among these are the large-scale anomalies seen in the very same Planck data that have put such stringent limits on non-Gaussianity. But that question, described in Planck Paper 23, will have to wait for another day…

Planck (but only in name?)

Posted in Science Politics, The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , , , on March 3, 2013 by telescoper

First, a serious announcement. It appears that the announcement of results from the Planck Mission will be streamed live from ESA HQ on 21st March from 10.00 to 12.00 CET (whatever that is). The UK will remain on GMT until 31st March so the  ESA web server will probably crash at 9am British time on 21st March.

There’s a short press release making this announcement here. It says:

On Thursday 21 March 2013, the main scientific findings from the European Space Agency’s Planck spacecraft will be announced at a press briefing to be held at ESA’s Headquarter in Paris. Simultaneously with this event, data products and scientific papers based on the “nominal” operations period will be made public through the Planck Legacy Archive.

I was interested in the appearance of the word “nominal” in quotes in there so I searched for its meaning in the One True Chambers Dictionary, where I found:

nominal, adj relating to or of the nature of a name or noun; of names; by name; only in name; so-called, but not in reality; inconsiderable, small, minor, in comparison with the real value, hardly more than a matter of form…

Interesting. It seems that the “nominal” could mean, on the one hand, that ESA are being unusually modest about the importance of the forthcoming Planck results or, on the other, that there will now be a host of conspiracy theorists suggesting that the Planck results aren’t real….

That reminds me that years and years ago I had an idea for a crime novel with a plot that revolves around the murder of a prominent cosmologist just as some important scientific discovery is about to be announced. Suspicion gathers that the whole thing is an enormous hoax and the discovery bogus. But the experiment is shrouded in secrecy, and so expensive that it can’t easily be repeated, so  who can tell, and how?

It’s very difficult to know for sure whether any scientific discoveries are genuine or not, even if the data and analysis procedures are made public. There’s always the possibility that everything might have been fabricated simulated, but in most cases the experiment can be repeated at a later date and the fraud eventually exposed, such as in the Schön Scandal.  In Big Science, this may not be practicable. However, Big Science requires big teams of people and the chances are someone would blow the whistle, or try to…

Anyway, I know that there are people out there who take everything I write on this blog absurdly literally so I’ll spell it out that I am in no way suggesting that the Planck mission is a fraud. Or predicting that there’ll be a murder just before the announcements on March 21st. Any similarity purely coincidental and all that. And I’ve never had time to write the book anyway – perhaps a publisher might read this and offer me an advance as an incentive?

Moreover, going back to the Chambers Dictionary, I note the final definition omitted above

…according to plan (space flight)

So that’s that. Nothing sinister. I’m not sure how “nominal” acquired that meaning, mind you, but that’s another story…

The End of Cosmology?

Posted in Biographical, The Universe and Stuff with tags , , on February 21, 2013 by telescoper

A very busy day interviewing candidates for a job in Experimental Particle Physics was made even busier by the arrival by the boxes containing all my books and other knick-knacks from Cardiff. Anyway, the net result of all this is that I only have time for a brief post before I go home and lapse into a coma. I can at least do something useful, however, which is to pass on the following announcement:

Presentation of the first cosmologic results of Planck mission as well as its first all-sky images of the Cosmic Microwave Background

Launched in 2009, Planck studies the Cosmic Microwave Background – the relic radiation from the Big Bang – to allow cosmologists to zero-in on theories that describe the Universe’s birth and evolution. The first all-sky images of the Cosmic Microwave Background will be presented at the press conference held in Paris ESA HQ on March 21st, 2013.

We’ve been expecting that the “cosmologic” results from Planck would be announced sometime early this year. Now we know when. March 21st 2013 is the date to put in your diary, and that’s only about a month from now. Exciting times.

Will Planck confirm the standard cosmological model and measure its parameters more precisely? Or will there be the first hints of physics outside the standard model? Will cosmology be all done and dusted, or will we find out that we didn’t understand the Universe as well as we originally thought?

I don’t know. Yet.

Infinities in Cosmology

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , on February 7, 2013 by telescoper

Only time to post a quick advertisement I received in an email from the one of the organizers of a 4-day series of talks on Infinities in Cosmology, at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP), Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, from 18-21 March 2013.

This is one in a series of thematic programmes on Cosmology and Philosophy organised by a collaboration of cosmologists and philosophers of science at Oxford and Cambridge Universities. Speakers include A. Aguirre, M. Dafermos, M.R. Douglas, G.F.R. Ellis, M. Hogarth, and S. Saunders.

This is taken from the conference website:

Cosmology involves infinities, or at least the prospect of infinities, in various ways: the most obvious being the potentially infinite age and size of the universe, and the possible occurrence of actual infinities at local spacetime singularities or at the beginning of the Universe. But there are also other kinds of infinity to consider; for example, the possibility of enhanced spatiotemporal scope for computation, or the unlimited proliferation inherent in the concept of the multiverse and the problems encountered in defining probabilities in this context. These topics will be explored in this three-day series and the following full-day workshop.

Looks quite interesting to me, although I don’t think I’ll be able to make time to go!

Further details and online registration for the conference are now available at

http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/events/infinities2013/

The Planck Rumour Mill

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , on December 28, 2012 by telescoper

I gather the internet is crawling with people searching for rumours about the Planck mission. It would obviously be entirely inappropriate for me to direct my readers to any website where they might obtain access to confidential information about this experiment, the results from which are embargoed until well into the New Year. So naturally that’s what I’m going to do. Well, blog traffic doesn’t generate itself does it?

As a Telescoper exclusive I am able to offer you a sneak preview of the top secret Planck data well in advance of official release. If you want to see what Planck scientists have been looking since Planck was launched in 2009, just click here.

WMAP: The Last Judgement

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , , , on December 21, 2012 by telescoper

It seems the the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, or rather the estimable team of people working on it, have produced yet another set of maps and key results. I believe this will be the final release from WMAP. The paper is on the arXiv here and it represents a synthesis of no less than nine years of measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation:

Here’s the abstract:

We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the WMAP mission. We provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate CMB anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained LCDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that Big Bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (3.26+/-0.35). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is 13.772+/-0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H0 = 69.32+/-0.80 km/s/Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity reported earlier by WMAP now has high statistical significance (n_s = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean, Omega_k = -0.0027 (+0.0039/-0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter LCDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further. With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness-of-fit, the inflationary flat LCDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.

The main reason for posting this is to acknowledge the remarkable impact WMAP has had on the field of cosmology. The standard model does indeed account for most available cosmological data extremely well. I’m not entirely sure about the “no significant anomalies” bit in the last sentence, in fact, but I won’t argue with it as it depends entirely upon what you mean by significant. It’s not exactly proven that the fluctuations have “random phases” either. We’ll just have to see whether data from Planck, due to be released next year, will reveal evidence of any physics beyond the standard framework WMAP did so much to establish.

Das Letzte Gericht

Posted in Art, Astrohype, The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , on December 20, 2012 by telescoper

Apparently the world is due to end tomorrow, so I’ve saved quite a lot of money by not having done my Christmas shopping yet. Anyway, the forthcoming Apocalypse reminded me of the painting that I often use to introduce cosmology talks. I usually use this piece of Hieronymus Bosch Das letzte Gericht (The Last Judgement) to illustrate my feelings about the standard cosmological model:

das_letzte_gericht

The top part represents the concordance cosmology. It clearly features an eminent cosmologist surrounded by postdoctoral researchers. Everything appears to be in heavenly harmony, surrounded by a radiant glow of self-satisfaction. The trumpets represent various forms of exaggerated press coverage.

But if you step back from it, and get the whole thing in a proper perspective, you realise that there’s an awful lot going on underneath that’s not so pleasant or easy to interptet. I don’t know what’s going down below there, although the unfortunate figures slaving away in miserable conditions and suffering unimaginable torments, are obviously supposed to represent graduate students. The large knife visible in the bottom right corner clearly symbolises budget cuts looming in the next Comprehensive Spending Review.

The main point is that the concordance model is based on rather strange foundations: nobody understands what the dark matter and dark energy are, for example. Even more fundamentally, the whole thing is based on a shotgun marriage between general relativity and quantum field theory which is doomed to fail somewhere along the line.

Far from being a final theory of the Universe I think we should treat our standard model as a working hypothesis and actively look for departures from it. I’m not at all against the model. As models go, it’s very successful. It’s a good one, but it’s still just a model.

Passo del Tonale Winter School 2012

Posted in Biographical, Books, Talks and Reviews with tags , , on December 18, 2012 by telescoper

I’m having a restful morning at home because (a) it was our Departmental Christmas Lunch yesterday meaning that I’m feeling a bit fragile and (b) there’s a planned electrical shutdown in our building this morning meaning that there’s not much point going in until it’s all back up anyway.

Anyway, since various people made the odd facetious comment accusing me of skiving off last week, I thought I’d take the opportunity to reflect a little on the Winter School that I was lecturing at last week. This took place at Passo del Tonale, in the Italian Alps and was the Sixth in a series of schools for graduate students and postdocs held there annually. When I was invited to take part, I was asked to give five lectures as a sort of overview of the current state of cosmology. Subsequently one of the other speakers dropped out so instead of inviting a replacement, the remaining four were given an extra lecture each. Then one of those was taken ill during the summer school so I stepped in at short notice to give another one. And so it came to pass that I gave seven lectures altogether, in the space of five days. That’s considerably more lecturing than I would have done had I stayed in Cardiff.

Anyway, here’s a picture of me during one of the lectures (taken by one of the participants, Chris Crowe).

Tonale

Afternoons were kept free for skiing and snowboarding, but my dodgy knees don’t allow me to participate in such activities. I am not shap’d for sportive tricks nor made to court an amorous looking-glass. I had lectures to prepare anyway.

However the hosts looked after us well and there was a fine conference dinner on Wednesday evening,

IMG-20121212-00008

the main course featuring a roast pig brought into the room by the chefs with some aplomb:

IMG-20121212-00009

Everything was eaten. I was given the honour of having one of the ears, in fact. A bit chewy, but quite tasty in case you were wondering. I don’t know what the vegetarians did.

IMG-20121212-00010

Anyway, at the end of the school the lecturers were presented with bottles of fine Grappa. I’ll no doubt be sampling mine over the Christmas vacation!

Simulations and False Assumptions

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , , on November 29, 2012 by telescoper

Just time for an afternoon quickie!

I saw this abstract by Smith et al. on the arXiv today:

Future large-scale structure surveys of the Universe will aim to constrain the cosmological model and the true nature of dark energy with unprecedented accuracy. In order for these surveys to achieve their designed goals, they will require predictions for the nonlinear matter power spectrum to sub-percent accuracy. Through the use of a large ensemble of cosmological N-body simulations, we demonstrate that if we do not understand the uncertainties associated with simulating structure formation, i.e. knowledge of the `true’ simulation parameters, and simply seek to marginalize over them, then the constraining power of such future surveys can be significantly reduced. However, for the parameters {n_s, h, Om_b, Om_m}, this effect can be largely mitigated by adding the information from a CMB experiment, like Planck. In contrast, for the amplitude of fluctuations sigma8 and the time-evolving equation of state of dark energy {w_0, w_a}, the mitigation is mild. On marginalizing over the simulation parameters, we find that the dark-energy figure of merit can be degraded by ~2. This is likely an optimistic assessment, since we do not take into account other important simulation parameters. A caveat is our assumption that the Hessian of the likelihood function does not vary significantly when moving from our adopted to the ‘true’ simulation parameter set. This paper therefore provides strong motivation for rigorous convergence testing of N-body codes to meet the future challenges of precision cosmology.

This paper asks an important question which I could paraphrase as “Do we trust N-body simulations too much?”.  The use of numerical codes in cosmology is widespread and there’s no question that they have driven the subject forward in many ways, not least because they can generate “mock” galaxy catalogues in order to help plan survey strategies. However, I’ve always worried that there is a tendency to trust these calculations too much. On the one hand there’s the question of small-scale resolution and on the other there’s the finite size of the computational volume. And there are other complications in between too. In other words, simulations are approximate. To some extent our ability to extract information from surveys will therefore be limited by the inaccuracy of our calculation of  the theoretical predictions.

Anyway,  the paper gives us quite a few things to think about and I think it might provoke a bit of discussion, which is why I mentioned it here – i.e. to encourage folk to read and give their opinions.

The use of the word “simulation” always makes me smile. Being a crossword nut I spend far too much time looking in dictionaries but one often finds quite amusing things there. This is how the Oxford English Dictionary defines SIMULATION:

1.

a. The action or practice of simulating, with intent to deceive; false pretence, deceitful profession.

b. Tendency to assume a form resembling that of something else; unconscious imitation.

2. A false assumption or display, a surface resemblance or imitation, of something.

3. The technique of imitating the behaviour of some situation or process (whether economic, military, mechanical, etc.) by means of a suitably analogous situation or apparatus, esp. for the purpose of study or personnel training.

So it’s only the third entry that gives the intended meaning. This is worth bearing in mind if you prefer old-fashioned analytical theory!

In football, of course, you can even get sent off for simulation…

Three Astronomy Jobs at Sussex – The Deadline Approaches!

Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , on November 29, 2012 by telescoper

I’m taking the liberty of repeating this advertisement in case anybody out there missed it. Here is an announcement of three (new, permanent) jobs in Astronomy at the University of Sussex. You can also find an advertisment in the November AAS Jobs Register. In fact this is it. The deadline is 30th November, i.e. tomorrow, so if you want to apply then you had better get your skates on!

Full details of the positions are in the above links, but the gist is that applications are invited for 3 permanent, full-time faculty positions within the Astronomy Centre.

The 8 existing faculty have research interests that span the observation, modelling/simulation and theory of extragalactic astronomy and cosmology.  We are seeking talented and ambitious colleagues whose research interests complement and extend our current activity.

I’ll be interested to see how many people apply as a result of seeing this here announcement, so if you do fill in an application form  be sure to answer the question “Where did you see this post advertised” with “In the Dark”!