Archive for Daily Telegraph

Bullying at UK Universities

Posted in Harassment Bullying etc with tags , , , , on June 17, 2025 by telescoper

Regular followers of this blog will interested to see that the Daily Telegraph has published an article about Professor Neil Wyn Evans about bullying in UK universities, with particular reference to his own experiences during a long-running dispute at the Institute of Astronomy at Cambridge.

If you would rather not click through to the Torygraph, here is the most remarkable revelation (amongst many). It is about an investigation by an independent barrister that took over eighteen months to do complete. When Prof. blew the whistle on what he saw as bullying, he ended up being himself investigated, though the investigation dismissed all the claims made against him:

In his independent report into Prof Evans’ whistleblowing claims, the external barrister appointed by Cambridge University said he regretted the length of time that the investigation took and “the effect this will undoubtedly have had on all those involved”. The barrister also raised concerns that several staff members pulled out of providing testimony “over fears they would face retaliation.

It is a sorry state of affairs when members of staff refuse to provide testimony to an investigation for for fear of retaliation, and an even sorrier state when you realize that the feared retaliation would come from the University’s own Human Resources Department!

This is not only a problem at Cambridge, of course. Universities generally are terrible at dealing with this sort of thing. At least there’s at least a chance of doing something about it in Cambridge, however, as Neil Wyn Evans is standing for the Chancellorship of Cambridge University. He’s got my vote.

The Insignificance of ORB

Posted in Bad Statistics with tags , , , on April 5, 2016 by telescoper

A piece about opinion polls ahead of the EU Referendum which appeared in today’s Daily Torygraph has spurred me on to make a quick contribution to my bad statistics folder.

The piece concerned includes the following statement:

David Cameron’s campaign to warn voters about the dangers of leaving the European Union is beginning to win the argument ahead of the referendum, a new Telegraph poll has found.

The exclusive poll found that the “Remain” campaign now has a narrow lead after trailing last month, in a sign that Downing Street’s tactic – which has been described as “Project Fear” by its critics – is working.

The piece goes on to explain

The poll finds that 51 per cent of voters now support Remain – an increase of 4 per cent from last month. Leave’s support has decreased five points to 44 per cent.

This conclusion is based on the results of a survey by ORB in which the number of participants was 800. Yes, eight hundred.

How much can we trust this result on statistical grounds?

Suppose the fraction of the population having the intention to vote in a particular way in the EU referendum is p. For a sample of size n with x respondents indicating that they hen one can straightforwardly estimate p \simeq x/n. So far so good, as long as there is no bias induced by the form of the question asked nor in the selection of the sample which, given the fact that such polls have been all over the place seems rather unlikely.

A little bit of mathematics involving the binomial distribution yields an answer for the uncertainty in this estimate of p in terms of the sampling error:

\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}

For the sample size of 800 given, and an actual value p \simeq 0.5 this amounts to a standard error of about 2%. About 95% of samples drawn from a population in which the true fraction is p will yield an estimate within p \pm 2\sigma, i.e. within about 4% of the true figure. In other words the typical variation between two samples drawn from the same underlying population is about 4%. In other other words, the change reported between the two ORB polls mentioned above can be entirely explained by sampling variation and does not at all imply any systematic change of public opinion between the two surveys.

I need hardly point out that in a two-horse race (between “Remain” and “Leave”) an increase of 4% in the Remain vote corresponds to a decrease in the Leave vote by the same 4% so a 50-50 population vote can easily generate a margin as large as  54-46 in such a small sample.

Why do pollsters bother with such tiny samples? With such a large margin error they are basically meaningless.

I object to the characterization of the Remain campaign as “Project Fear” in any case. I think it’s entirely sensible to point out the serious risks that an exit from the European Union would generate for the UK in loss of trade, science funding, financial instability, and indeed the near-inevitable secession of Scotland. But in any case this poll doesn’t indicate that anything is succeeding in changing anything other than statistical noise.

Statistical illiteracy is as widespread amongst politicians as it is amongst journalists, but the fact that silly reports like this are commonplace doesn’t make them any less annoying. After all, the idea of sampling uncertainty isn’t all that difficult to understand. Is it?

And with so many more important things going on in the world that deserve better press coverage than they are getting, why does a “quality” newspaper waste its valuable column inches on this sort of twaddle?

When shall we three meet again?

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , on March 2, 2012 by telescoper

Honoured amongst bloggers…

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , on March 25, 2009 by telescoper

I only have time for a quickie today as I have to spend this evening getting things together for my forthcoming trip to the Irish Republic for a talk in Dublin (which I’ll no doubt ramble on about when I get back).

I hear dark rumblings about the STFC financial crisis turning into a full-scale disaster owing to inept management, but I’ll refrain from going into details until it all becomes official. Suffice to say for now that, if you thought things were bad already, just watch this space…

Anyway, at least today brought some news that flattered my ego. Ian Douglas at the Daily Telegraph has seen fit to put this blog on his list of five great physics blogs. He’s obviously a man of great taste. Quite cute too. I’ll have to revise my opinion of the Daily Telegraph.

But no.

They have boring crosswords.