A businessman is on a luxury yacht, celebrating his recent acquittal in a high-profile fraud trial, when the yacht sinks in mysterious circumstances off the coast of Sicily. The businessman is one of six people on board who are missing, presumed dead. Just last week, the businessman’s co-defendant in the aforementioned fraud trial died in a mysterious road accident while out running in Cambridgeshire.
Using Bayesian methods, calculate the probability of these two events being a coincidence. Show your working. To the police.
Update: An investigation into possible manslaughter has been opened by the authorities in Italy.
In the Dark 