Archive for March, 2020

The WHO-China Report on Corvid-19

Posted in Covid-19, Uncategorized with tags , , on March 4, 2020 by telescoper

As it is a matter of topical and general interest I thought it would be worthwhile sharing the joint World Health Organization – China report on Coronavirus, which you can find here. There is also a discussion thread on Reddit here.

A key figure from this report shows that the number of new cases of Covid-19 has indeed been declining:

The report indicates why and how this has happened. For example, when a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family transmitted by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of transmission.

Do read the report. While not being complacent about the scale of the public health challenge, it is a valuable antidote to some of the scaremongering going on.

Influenza in England – Updated

Posted in Biographical with tags , on March 3, 2020 by telescoper

With all the concern about coronavirus going around this days I was reading an interesting document from Public Health England about seasonal influenza in the UK. This is not the same thing as Covid-19, and it is important not to confuse the two, but there are interesting parallels. I certainly recommend reading the document, which you can find here (PDF, 57 pages).

Here is a particularly interesting (and scary) table about mortality associated with influenza over the last few years:

(The final year 2018/18 is incomplete, hence the lower figures.)

Three things struck me looking at this:

  1. The death rate from seasonal lnfluenza is much higher than I had imagined;
  2. The death rate is highly variable from year to year;
  3. The death rate is dominated by persons over the age of 65.

About a month ago I wrote a post in which I stated that I’d never had a ‘flu jab. After having people describe to me what `normal’ seasonal influenza is like I am bound to say that I don’t think I’ve ever actually had it. I’ve had the odd cold, and things I thought were ‘flu, but nothing with symptoms approaching the severity that people have told me about.

Anyway, back to Covid-19. Mortality so far seems largely to be confined to the elderly, but other than that its parameters are understood far less well and, above all, there is no vaccine (and won’t be for some time). Although people under the age of 65 have a relatively low risk of dying from coronavirus they can still act as vectors that can come into contact with and expose higher risk groups. Covid-19 may not threaten your own life if you’re a healthy 35 year old, but if you get it you could easily become a threat to older folk, or people with pre-existing medical conditions, around you.

In principle, therefore, reducing the rate of transmission through social contact is eminently sensible, although I remain unconvinced about some of the decisions that have been taken recently.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Update: You might find it interesting to read the joint World Health Organization – China report on Coronavirus you can find here.

Competition set to bristle in Beard of Ireland 2020 poll

Posted in Beards, Biographical on March 3, 2020 by telescoper

The poll for Beard of Ireland 2020 has opened and the winner will be announced on St Patrick’s Day (March 17th).

Owing to an administrative error I am among those nominated and was even in the lead in early voting (I mean after about 5 votes). Now I have fallen back so I fear I may have peaked too soon!

Anyway, please feel free to vote!

 

P.S. That’s not me in the picture.

kmflett's avatarKmflett's Blog

Beard Liberation Front

Press release 2nd March

Contact Keith Flett 07803 167266

BEARD OF IRELAND 2020 POLL SEES COMPETITION BRISTLING

2019 winner Lee Reynolds

The Beard Liberation Front, the informal network of beard wearers, has said that competition for the Irish Beard of the Year 2020 is officially open

The 2017 winner was politician Colum Eastwood who bearded broadcaster William Crawley for the annual Award.

In 2018 the DUP’s Lee Reynolds shaved writer Dominic O’Reilly for the honour with Colum Eastwood in a steady third place.

In 2019 Lee Reynolds retained the title

The 2020 winner will be announced to mark St Patrick Day on 17th March

The BLF says that while traditionally a land of predominantly clean-shaven cultures, Ireland has in recent times become something of a centre for stylish and trendy beards.

Contenders for the title in 2020 include a diverse range of the hirsute- footballers, political activists…

View original post 102 more words

In My Solitude

Posted in Jazz with tags , , , on March 2, 2020 by telescoper

Whether or not you’re in a state of self-isolation because of coronavirus, please give up three and a bit minutes of your time to listen to this little gem by the quartet that was led for a short time by Ruby Braff (cornet) and George Barnes (guitar). That band not only knew how to play but also exactly when to stop, as demonstrated on this exquisite live version of the great Duke Ellington song, In My Solitude. Michael Moore is on bass (arco on parts of this number) and Wayne Wright on rhythm guitar, but it’s Ruby Braff who takes the lead on this one, using his beautiful tone to stunning effect…

 

 

 

 

Coronavirus Reactions

Posted in Covid-19, Maynooth with tags , , on March 2, 2020 by telescoper

I was having lunch last week when a colleague from another department here stated that he thought that within two weeks that he thought that within a fortnight Maynooth University would be closed down owing to the threat from Covid-19 (the Coronavirus). I’m not sure whether he meant it seriously. At the time I thought that was extremely improbable but this morning we heard that a school in the Dublin area has been closed for two weeks because one of its students has the virus, and now I’m not so sure…

Incidentally, setting aside possible the rights or wrongs decision to close the Dublin school the attempt by the Health Service Executive to keep its name from the public strikes me as utterly daft. Do they seriously think that none of the hundreds of pupils or parents thereof is going to talk about it? I checked on social media this morning and easily found its name. It won’t give people much confidence in the HSE to see them losing sight of reality.

Another reaction to this worldwide health scare became apparent yesterday as the American Physical Society cancelled at very short notice its meeting in Denver due to take place this week. Thousands of delegates were due to attend, and many of them had already arrived when the cancellation announcement was made.

I’m bound to say that I find all this to be quite an overreaction to the threat from Covid-19, but I am not an epidemiologist and I suppose the medical people must know what they are doing. It seems the primary objective at present is to limit the spread of the disease, which makes sense particularly as there is as yet to vaccine. Whether measures like those mentioned above will actually achieve that I don’t know. One has to balance that consideration against the risk of causing panic by giving the impression that things are out of control.

We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

In the meantime, as part of my public service responsibility here is the official advert from the Irish Government:

Three Poems for St David’s Day

Posted in Poetry with tags , , , , , , , on March 1, 2020 by telescoper

It’s St David’s Day today, and I’m glad to say that Storm Jorge has passed, so I wish you all a big

Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus!

 

Gratuitous Picture of some Daffodils near the Maynooth University Library.

It has become a bit of a St David’s Day tradition on this this blog to post a piece of verse by the great Welsh poet R.S. Thomas, but this year I decided to post three poems by different Welsh poets. But I’ll start with R.S. Thomas. This is The Bright Field.

I have seen the sun break through
to illuminate a small field
for a while, and gone my way
and forgotten it. But that was the pearl
of great price, the one field that had
treasure in it. I realize now
that I must give all that I have
to possess it. Life is not hurrying

on to a receding future, nor hankering after
an imagined past. It is the turning
aside like Moses to the miracle
of the lit bush, to a brightness
that seemed as transitory as your youth
once, but is the eternity that awaits you.

This one is by a poet who shared the same surname (but little else either stylistically or thematically), Dylan Thomas. It’s called Here in This Spring.

Here in this spring, stars float along the void;
Here in this ornamental winter
Down pelts the naked weather;
This summer buries a spring bird.

Symbols are selected from the years’
Slow rounding of four seasons’ coasts,
In autumn teach three seasons’ fires
And four birds’ notes.

I should tell summer from the trees, the worms
Tell, if at all, the winter’s storms
Or the funeral of the sun;
I should learn spring by the cuckooing,
And the slug should teach me destruction.

A worm tells summer better than the clock,
The slug’s a living calendar of days;
What shall it tell me if a timeless insect
Says the world wears away?

And finally, by popular request, a poem by Dannie Abse called The Old Gods.

The gods, old as night, don’t trouble us.
Poor weeping Venus! Her pubic hairs are grey,
and her magic love girdle has lost its spring.
Neptune wonders where he put his trident.
Mars is gaga – illusory vultures on the wing.

Pluto exhumed, blinks. My kind of world, he thinks.
Kidnapping and rape, like my Front Page exploits
adroitly brutal – but he looks out of sorts when
other unmanned gods shake their heads tut tut,
respond boastingly, boringly anecdotal.

Diana has done a bunk, fearing astronauts.
Saturn, Time on his hands, stares at nothing and
nothing stares back. Glum Bacchus talks ad nauseam
of cirrhosis and small bald Cupid, fiddling
with arrows, can’t recall which side the heart is.

All the old gods have become enfeebled,
mere playthings for poets. Few, doze or daft,
frolic on Parnassian clover. True, sometimes
summer light dies in a room – but only
a bearded profile in a cloud floats over.