Archive for April, 2025

Trump’s Tariff Tirade

Posted in Finance, mathematics, Politics with tags , , , , , , on April 3, 2025 by telescoper

I didn’t watch the speech tirade by “US President” Donald Trump* last night in which he unveiled his new tariff plan, but people have been talking about this all day so I couldn’t resist a quick comment. There’s a lot I don’t know about economics and trade policy but one thing I do know is that the trad-weighted average tariff on goods from the USA entering the EU is about 3%, not the 39% that Trump alleged. I did therefore wonder where he got this number and all his other “reciprocal tariffs” from. Fortunately a little digging around revealed the answer.

On the left you see part of the chart showing tariffs country-by-country and the second is an extract from the published methodology which would be hilarious were the consequences not so serious.

You will see that the second column on the chart is headed “Tariffs charged on the USA”, with 39% listed for the European Union. This number is calculated using the “formula” on the right which has absolutely nothing to do with tariffs charged. Moreover, the denominator contains the product εφ with the values ε=4 and φ=0.25 given in the text so εφ = 1. The expert mathematician who derived this formulae seems to have missed the fact that ε is not less than zero (first sentence) if it is equal to 4, but we’ll let that pass. In fact I can’t be bothered to point out the other errors because no matter how egregious they are, there is no chance of Trumpty Dumpty reversing his decisions anyway.

To sum up, the notional tariff in column 2 is just the difference between imports and exports (the country’s trade surplus) divided by imports. The numbers in the third column of the chart on the left are just half those in the second column (give or take rounding errors). There is also a minimum of 10%, which applies even to countries with which the USA has a trade surplus. China faces huge tariffs because it has a large trade surplus with the USA. The EU’s 20% tariff is nothing to do with the tariffs it charges but is due to the fact that it has a trade surplus with the USA; the UK has a lower tariff rate than the EU because it has a smaller trade surplus  with the USA. That’s it.

I heard a Trump-supporting numpty attempting to justify the calculation shown in the chart on the grounds that it is really an “unfairness index”, it apparently being unfair and worthy of punishment if a country sells more to the USA than the USA sells to it. Following this line of reasoning, I have decided that all shops are unfair because I always buy more from them than they buy from me.

P.S. I was thinking that in future retaliation I should boycott goods from the USA but this would be an empty gesture because I don’t really buy any anyway. Looking up top imports from the USA to Ireland I find, for example, Bourbon (which I never buy because it is undrinkable) and confectionery (which I don’t buy because I don’t have a sweet tooth). Then I found peanuts, which I do buy occasionally, and will not buy in future. However in the grand scheme of world trade, peanuts are small potatoes.

*I apologize for forgetting to mention that Donald Trump is a convicted felon.

Maynooth University Library Cat Update

Posted in Maynooth with tags , on April 2, 2025 by telescoper
Cat and shadow…

I’ve never thought before that a cat could be used as a sundial…

The Universe from Beginning to End

Posted in Maynooth, The Universe and Stuff with tags , , , on April 2, 2025 by telescoper

It’s not every day that you get the chance to attend a lecture by a Nobel Laureate, but 14th April 2025 will be such a day in Maynooth because the annual Dean’s Lecture for the Faculty of Science and Engineering at Maynooth University will be given by Professor Brian Schmidt who was one of the three winners of the 2011 Nobel Prize for Physics.

The description of his lecture is as follows:

Astronomers have pieced together the story of our Universe that begins more than 13 Billion years ago in a Big Bang. In the 2025 Dean’s Lecture, Nobel Prize Winner Prof Brian Schmidt will describe the journey that science has thus far taken to understand our Universe, describing what we know about the Cosmos and how we know it, as well as reflecting on some of the mysteries that remain. A chance to learn a bit about everything from Dark Energy to Black Holes, and an opportunity for the audience to ask questions at the end of the lecture.

The lecture is intended to be accessible to a wide audience and will be in person. It is free to attend but you need to register because space in the lecture venue is limited. To register and also find out more about the event please visit Eventbrite below:

I am delighted that Brian is taking time out of his busy schedule to visit us in Maynooth and am looking forward not only to his lecture but also for the chance for him to meet and talk to our students.

ResearchFish Again

Posted in Biographical, Science Politics with tags , , , , , , on April 1, 2025 by telescoper

One of the things I definitely don’t miss about working in the UK university system is the dreaded Researchfish. If you’ve never heard of this bit of software, it’s intended to collect data relating to the outputs of research grants funded by the various Research Councils. That’s not an unreasonable thing to want to do, of course, but the interface is – or at least was when I last used it several years ago – extremely clunky and user-unfriendly. That meant that, once a year, along with other academics with research grants (in my case from STFC) I had to waste hours uploading bibliometric and other data by hand. A sensible system would have harvested this automatically as it is mostly available online at various locations or allowed users simply to upload their own publication list as a file; most of us keep an up-to-date list of publications for various reasons (including vanity!) anyway. Institutions also keep track of all this stuff independently. All this duplication seemed utterly pointless.

I always wondered what happened to the information I uploaded every year, which seemed to disappear without trace into the bowels of RCUK. I assume it was used for something, but mere researchers were never told to what purpose. I guess it was used to assess the performance of researchers in some way.

When I left the UK in 2018 to work full-time in Ireland, I took great pleasure in ignoring the multiple emails demanding that I do yet another Researchfish upload. The automated reminders turned into individual emails threatening that I would never again be eligible for funding if I didn’t do it, to which I eventually replied that I wouldn’t be applying for UK research grants anymore anyway. So there. Eventually the emails stopped.

Then, about three years ago, ResearchFish went from being merely pointless to downright sinister as a scandal erupted about the company that operates it (called Infotech), involving the abuse of data and the bullying of academics. I wrote about this here. It then transpired that UKRI, the umbrella organization governing the UK’s research council had been actively conniving with Infotech to target critics. An inquiry was promised but I don’t know what became of that.

Anyway, all that was a while ago and I neither longer live nor work in the UK so why mention ResearchFish again, now?

The reason is something that shocked me when I found out about it a few days ago. Researchfish is now operated by commercial publishing house Elsevier.

Words fail. I can’t be the only person to see a gigantic conflict of interest. How can a government agency allow the assessment of its research outputs to be outsourced to a company that profits hugely by the publication of those outputs? There’s a phrase in British English which I think is in fairly common usage: marking your own homework. This relates to individuals or organizations who have been given the responsibility for regulating their own products. Is very apt here.

The acquisition of Researchfish isn’t the only example of Elsevier getting its talons stuck into academia life. Elsevier also “runs” the bibliometric service Scopus which it markets as a sort of quality indicator for academic articles. I put “runs” in inverted commas because Scopus is hopelessly inaccurate and unreliable. I can certainly speak from experience on that. Nevertheless, Elsevier has managed to dupe research managers – clearly not the brightest people in the world – into thinking that Scopus is a quality product. I suppose the more you pay for something the less inclined you are to doubt its worth, because if you do find you have paid worthless junk you look like an idiot.

A few days ago I posted a piece that include this excerpt from an article in Wired:

Every industry has certain problems universally acknowledged as broken: insurance in health care, licensing in music, standardized testing in education, tipping in the restaurant business. In academia, it’s publishing. Academic publishing is dominated by for-profit giants like Elsevier and Springer. Calling their practice a form of thuggery isn’t so much an insult as an economic observation. 

With the steady encroachment of the likes of Elsevier into research assessment, it is clear that as well as raking in huge profits, the thugs are now also assuming the role of the police. The academic publishing industry is a monstrous juggernaut that is doing untold damage to research and is set to do more. It has to stop.