Archive for the Finance Category

« Older Entries

An independent arXiv

Posted in Finance, Maynooth, Open Access with tags , , , on April 9, 2026 by telescoper

I’m a bit late passing this news on, but a few weeks ago arXiv announced that from 1st July 2026 it will be establishing itself as an “independent nonprofit organization”. It has been hosted for many years by Cornell University. You can read here about the reasons for this and how it will work, and there is a lengthier article in Science magazine, but the quick summary is

This transition allows for faster technological development, greater organizational flexibility, expanded partnerships, and long-term financial sustainability. A platform built by scientists for scientists, the new arXiv will continue to serve researchers worldwide with the same dedication to free and open scientific discovery.

Such a move creates opportunities, but also carries risks. The sustainability of the new-look arXiv will depend on finding appropriate sources of income, for example. I wish arXiv well in this move. There’s an advertisement for the post of Chief Executive, if anyone fancies the job!

One possible future model for the Open Journal of Astrophysics is as a standalone non-profit organization of some sort, funded also by donations. Currently we are funded by the Library at Maynooth University, where I am based. Having made the decision not to charge fees of any kind, we lack any source of income other than the University. I am very grateful for that support, but we are run on a very tight budget. We keep costs to an absolute minimum, but are not free.

I have written before about what I think the future of Diamond Open Access could look like. I would like to see a range of Diamond Open Access journals offering a choice for authors and serving different sub-disciplines. Most universities nowadays have publishing operations so there could be network of federated journals, some based on arXiv and some based on other repositories and others with different models, such as SciPost. Perhaps institutions are worried about the expense but, as we have shown the actual cost, is far less than they are wasting on Article Processing Charges.

Everything is working well right now at OJAp, but it is not reasonable that the expense of running a journal that serves the global astrophysics community should fall entirely on one small University in Ireland. It won’t be sustainable in the long run, either, if we continue to grow at the present rate. Compare us with the Diamond Open Access publisher SCIPOST, which has a long list of sponsors covering its costs; we have none. My only hope at the moment of turning OJAp into an independent organization is to win the lottery!

Another thing makes me nervous. Many modern universities, which are nominally non-profit institutions, are managed by people who care far more about revenue generation than about academic scholarship and research. I worry that someone upstairs might pressurize us to introduce charges to generate income by threatening to close us down.

I know that money is very tight in astrophysics these days but if you have access to any potential sources of funding – then please consider supporting OJAp!

1 Comment »

Paying for the Open Journal of Astrophysics

Posted in Finance, Open Access with tags , , , , , , on March 30, 2026 by telescoper

A couple of days ago I received an email from a publisher offering to buy the Open Journal of Astrophysics. This happens from time to time, but it’s interesting to see the offer price increasing. This time it was for $150,000. I don’t know how that valuation was arrived at but I think OJAp is worth a lot more. But then there is a difference between price and value…

The publisher in question this time was XLESCIENCE, which is based in India and which charges typical Article Processing Charges of $1,200 per paper. I wonder how they would plan to make a profit from OJAp, which charges nothing? If a publisher did buy OJAp and started trying to charge an APC, people would just stop using it!

(The offer price is not the only reason I dismissed the approach, however. One other reason is that I don’t want to do business with a commercial publisher. Another reason I wouldn’t consider selling the Open Journal of Astrophysics is that I don’t actually own it. I did think about offering to sell them one of the many other journals I don’t own, just for a laught, but that might have been construed as attempted fraud…)

This episode reminded that some time ago I wrote a piece about funding open access journals. Having made the decision not to charge fees of any kind, we lack any source of income other than Maynooth University. I am very grateful for that support, but we are run on a shoestring budget. We are run entirely by volunteers and keep costs to an absolute minimum, but are not free.

I have written before about what I think the future of Diamond Open Access could look like. I would like to see a range of Diamond Open Access journals offering a choice for authors and serving different sub-disciplines. Most universities nowadays have publishing operations so there could be network of federated journals, some based on arXiv and some based on other repositories and others with different models, such as SciPost. Perhaps institutions are worried about the expense but, as we have shown the actual cost, is far less than they are wasting on Article Processing Charges.

Everything is going well at OJAp, but it is not reasonable that the expense of running a journal that serves the global astrophysics community should fall entirely on one small University in Ireland. It won’t be sustainable in the long run, either, if we continue to grow at the present rate. Compare us with the Diamond Open Access publisher SCIPOST, which has a long list of sponsors covering its costs; we have none. I know that money is very tight in astrophysics these days but if you have access to any potential sources of funding – then please consider supporting OJAp!

2 Comments »

Another Day, Another Elsevier Scandal

Posted in Finance with tags , , , , on February 26, 2026 by telescoper

Some weeks ago, in early January, I saw a story in the Irish Independent about Brian Lucey, a Professor in Trinity Business School. That story was subsequently featured in Retraction Watch which you can read if you can’t get past the paywall at the Irish Independent. It seems that 12 papers written by Professor Lucey were retracted after having been published in journals run by Elsevier for which Prof. Lucey was Editor in which capacity he made the final decision to publish them. Quoting from Retraction Watch:

“We can confirm these papers were retracted from 19 December to 23 December 2025,” an Elsevier spokesperson told us. “We uphold the highest standards of rigor and ethics in our publishing to protect the quality and integrity of research. Editors can publish in their journals as long as they are compliant to our policies. Please refer to our Publishing Ethics policies for further information regarding editorial conflicts of interests.”

The most surprising thing I learnt from this is that Elsevier apparently has a Publication Ethics policy!

Anyway, according to this piece by Chris Brunet, which includes a list of all the retracted papers, it seems this story has escalated considerably since January. The 12 papers mentioned above, all with Brian Lucey on their author list, had accumulated over five thousand citations between them. Prof. Lucey published 56 papers in 2025 – that’s a rate of more than one a week – raising suspicions that he has been adding his name to papers to which he made a minimal contribution. The previously-mentioned source also contains allegations of serious academic misconduct and other ethical violations, including the creation of a publishing and citation cartel.

Prof. Lucey has now been removed as an Editor from 5 journals: International Review of Financial Analysis, the International Review of Economics & Finance, Finance Research Letters, Financial Management, & Energy Finance. I don’t know if Prof. Lucey is subject to an internal investigation at Trinity College, Dublin, but he should be.

This episode is symptomatic of a commercial academic publishing industry which is rotten to the core, but which nobody seems willing to do anything about. I’ll take this opportunity to remind you that Elsevier owns Scopus, which passes itself off as a quality control agency for academic journals. It would be hilarious if it weren’t so outrageous.

3 Comments »

When will the AI Bubble burst?

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Finance, mathematics with tags , , , , on October 12, 2025 by telescoper

I’m not a financial expert, but I have noticed a significant number of articles in the media suggesting that the Generative AI industry is a bubble waiting to burst. There are recent pieces here on the BBC website, here in the Financial Times (from which I stole the cartoon), and here in the Irish Times, to name but a few.

These stories are based on reports by the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund, warning of a stock market crash far worse than the dotcom boom-and-bust of 2000 and even the banking crisis of 2008. Over 30% of the valuation of the US stock market, for example, lies in five big technology companies that are investing heavily in the enormous infrastructure required for AI. Their extravagant capital expenditure is underpinned by a complex series of financial arrangements which could unravel very quickly if the investors get cold feet and consider it unlikely they will see a return on their money. It does look very much like a bubble to me.

My own view is that the claims made about the capabilities of AI by tech gurus are grossly overstated. Only the irredeemably gullible could think otherwise. I think a correction is inevitable. It’s not a question of “if” but “when” and “how much”. I am not competent to answer those questions.

P.S. Now there’s an RTÉ Brainstorm piece along the same lines…

4 Comments »

Trump’s Tariff Tirade

Posted in Finance, mathematics, Politics with tags , , , , , , on April 3, 2025 by telescoper

I didn’t watch the speech tirade by “US President” Donald Trump* last night in which he unveiled his new tariff plan, but people have been talking about this all day so I couldn’t resist a quick comment. There’s a lot I don’t know about economics and trade policy but one thing I do know is that the trad-weighted average tariff on goods from the USA entering the EU is about 3%, not the 39% that Trump alleged. I did therefore wonder where he got this number and all his other “reciprocal tariffs” from. Fortunately a little digging around revealed the answer.

On the left you see part of the chart showing tariffs country-by-country and the second is an extract from the published methodology which would be hilarious were the consequences not so serious.

part of the list of “reciprocal tariffs”
The magic formula

You will see that the second column on the chart is headed “Tariffs charged on the USA”, with 39% listed for the European Union. This number is calculated using the “formula” on the right which has absolutely nothing to do with tariffs charged. Moreover, the denominator contains the product εφ with the values ε=4 and φ=0.25 given in the text so εφ = 1. The expert mathematician who derived this formulae seems to have missed the fact that ε is not less than zero (first sentence) if it is equal to 4, but we’ll let that pass. In fact I can’t be bothered to point out the other errors because no matter how egregious they are, there is no chance of Trumpty Dumpty reversing his decisions anyway.

To sum up, the notional tariff in column 2 is just the difference between imports and exports (the country’s trade surplus) divided by imports. The numbers in the third column of the chart on the left are just half those in the second column (give or take rounding errors). There is also a minimum of 10%, which applies even to countries with which the USA has a trade surplus. China faces huge tariffs because it has a large trade surplus with the USA. The EU’s 20% tariff is nothing to do with the tariffs it charges but is due to the fact that it has a trade surplus with the USA; the UK has a lower tariff rate than the EU because it has a smaller trade surplus  with the USA. That’s it.

I heard a Trump-supporting numpty attempting to justify the calculation shown in the chart on the grounds that it is really an “unfairness index”, it apparently being unfair and worthy of punishment if a country sells more to the USA than the USA sells to it. Following this line of reasoning, I have decided that all shops are unfair because I always buy more from them than they buy from me.

P.S. I was thinking that in future retaliation I should boycott goods from the USA but this would be an empty gesture because I don’t really buy any anyway. Looking up top imports from the USA to Ireland I find, for example, Bourbon (which I never buy because it is undrinkable) and confectionery (which I don’t buy because I don’t have a sweet tooth). Then I found peanuts, which I do buy occasionally, and will not buy in future. However in the grand scheme of world trade, peanuts are small potatoes.

*I apologize for forgetting to mention that Donald Trump is a convicted felon.

3 Comments »

The University of Edinburgh in Crisis

Posted in Education, Finance with tags , , , , on February 26, 2025 by telescoper

It seems that financial emergencies are spreading around the United Kingdom like a contagion. About a month ago I posted about the crisis at Cardiff University, but now there’s a bombshell about the University of Edinburgh which, according to the Times Higher is planning to make cuts of around £140 million in recurrent expenditure, about 10% of its annual operating budget. This level of cuts is greater than those previously listed at other universities, including Cardiff, the largest of which are measured in tens of millions. The piece goes on to explain that target can’t be reached by voluntary redundancies, which presumably means compulsory redundancies are looming.

I don’t know which particular academic units are under threat, but I’m sure this episode is causing a great deal of stress to a great many people. The only advice I can offer to anyone at Edinburgh worrying about the future is, if they haven’t done so already, to JOIN A UNION!

Talking of which, the University of Edinburgh UCU has pointed out that the University revealed a budget surplus last year and has huge reserves measured in the billions. It accuses managers of manufacturing a crisis in order to cut staff and bring about even more centralisation – thus achieving an even greater level of corporate control over teaching and research activities. The subordination of academia to management is the aim. I don’t doubt that university managers around the world believe that teaching will be largely done by AI anyway which will allow even more lecturing staff to be cut.

I believe that universities need less centralisation not more. The Principal of the University of Edinburgh, Peter Mathieson, is quoted in the Times Higher piece as saying:

We can no longer afford to run duplicative services across the university, often with inconsistent practices which create inefficiencies, increase staff workload and impact our student experience..

This is fair enough, but it is quite wrong to assume that greater centralisation is the solution. In my experience it is “The Centre” that creates inefficiencies, increases staff workload and impacts student experience. That is because it knows far less than Schools and Departments about what is needed to achieve their academic objectives. Universities need a flatter and more responsive structure, not the ever-increasing management bloat that has been imposed on them for decades and which is now causing them to capsize.

2 Comments »

On Budgets

Posted in Education, Finance, Maynooth, Politics with tags on October 11, 2023 by telescoper

Yesterday was Budget Day in Ireland, when the Irish Government had to decide how to deal with an unprecedented fiscal surplus. Would it use the available funds to help the homeless and those in poverty? Would it provide much-needed investment in public services and infrastructure? Or would it use the funds to buy the next General Election? As far as I see it, the decision was mainly to go with the third option, paying only lip service to the other two. That’s not surprising, as it’s the sort of thing the sort of people in the current Government have tended to do over the years. Short-termism is the order of the day.

When it comes to third level education, there was some good news for students. Tuition fees currently €3K will be cut by €1K but, disappointingly, the reduction is for one year only. As far as I can understand the news, extra Government funding to universities will replace the loss of fee income, but not provide the general uplift that was hoped for.

A couple of weeks ago, the Leaderene President of Maynooth University sent around a letter written by the Irish Universities Association (IUA) to the Taoiseach. You can find the PDF here. The Government must have been unconvinced by the arguments presented therein, because despite having more than enough dosh to pay for the requested increase in funding, no such largesse was forthcoming.

Despite this setback, Maynooth University’s Management hiring frenzy continues unabated. The latest new position to be advertised is a Director of International Recruitment and Conversion. No, I have no idea what it means either. Perhaps someone in Government looked at how much money Maynooth has burned recently on so many new positions and decided that third level institutions must have plenty of cash already?

In reality of course, the horde of new managers have been funded by diverting funds away from teaching and research. Maynooth already has the highest student-staff ratio of the eight comparable universities, a situation which will only get worse. As funding for teaching gets squeezed to pay for ballooning bureaucracy, departments have no alternative but to employ casual staff instead of permanent academics. As a report produced by the union IFUT makes clear, precarity is endemic in the Irish third level system,as it overwork and job-related stress.

I hope this interpretation is wrong but, the way I see it, none of this is accidental. During the pandemic, University bosses saw teaching staff take on greatly increased workloads that enabled their institutions to generate large surpluses. Having established just how much they could exploit their workforce, the way ahead will be more of the same. The deliberate policy of understaffing, overwork, and casualization will only accelerate. The Irish University system is heading for a crisis on the same scale as that in the United Kingdom, and lack of public funding is only part of the reason…

6 Comments »

Holding your ground

Posted in Biographical, Brighton, Finance with tags , , , on February 26, 2022 by telescoper

Thinking about the brave defenders of Ukraine, especially in Kyiv, who include numerous civilians I suddenly remembered an old post about a friend I met in Brighton many years ago, a Jewish man of Austrian extraction who went by the name of Solly. He had been sent by his parents to live in England a few years before the start of World War 2 when he was still a teenager.

To cut a long story short, in 1940 Solly ended up joining the Local Defence Volunteers (the Home Guard) in Brighton. This is something he told me reminiscing abut those times. over dinner many years ago.

On 7th September 1940 the War Office issued the following communique:

Message to all UK units: codeword CROMWELL. Home Defence forces to highest degree of readiness. Invasion of mainland UK expected at any time.

After being informed of this signal Solly and his comrades turned up to be issued with the equipment with which they were expected to stop the imminent invasion. In his case it was an ancient pre-WW1 rifle, three rounds of ammunition, and two improvised grenades. With these meagre supplies, they were supposed to hold their positions until reinforced, possibly for up to 7 days.

As they walked to their posts, all the volunteers were certain that they had no chance and that none of them would survive the night. In such a grim situation they were understandably quiet, but what talk there was exclusively concerned the need to make all their shots count. If each of them could kill at least one invader before he himself was killed then the invasion might be thwarted.

After an agonizing wait, and several false alarms, dawn broke. The Germans never came.

Solly clearly found this recollection difficult. Few of us are ever faced with such a stark prospect of death. But I remember one thing he did say, which at the time I didn’t really understand, which is that it was in a way quite liberating – accepting that you are certain to die means that you no longer feel afraid. He had previously worried that he might lack the courage to fight if called upon to do so, but that doubt disappeared on 7th September 1940.

I think we’re already seeing this attitude in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has emerged as a heroic figure . He must know that he is a marked man, and that his days are probably numbered, but he has refused offers to get him out to safety. The contrast between his courage and another so-called leader, who ran away from reporters to hid in a fridge, could not be greater.

Anyway, as the Russians enter the city of Kyiv, many civilians will be trying to summon up their courage right now. Received wisdom is that in urban fighting, the attacking force needs a numerical advantage of at least five to one and even more if the attackers are poorly trained conscripts, as seems to be the case in some parts of Ukraine. The defenders hold many cards, not least that it’s their land on which they’re fighting.

I fear that there is a bloodbath coming, but it seems to me very likely that the Russians will suffer worse. Not that Putin will be bothered. To him, his soldiers are mere cannon fodder.

Leave a comment »

Hope Springs Eternal…

Posted in Finance, Politics on October 28, 2021 by telescoper

… in the “Office for Budget Responsibility“

A decade of ludicrously over-optimistic forecasts.

“Man never is but always to be blest.”

Leave a comment »

Farewell to Flybe

Posted in Biographical, Covid-19, Finance on March 20, 2020 by telescoper

Just for the record, I today received a full refund for the cost of my Flybe tickets via the Chargeback scheme. Thanks to AIB for processing this so quickly!

The collapse of Flybe happened on 5th March 2020, just over two weeks ago. Can it really have been so recent? It seems like ages ago.

telescoper's avatarIn the Dark

It had been on the cards for some time, but last night the airline Flybe collapsed and has now gone into administration. Let me just leave this Twitter announcement made in January by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps here:

It seems that Flybe has gone the inevitable way of every Tory promise.

I had bought a ticket to fly from Dublin to Cardiff at the end of next week as the following week is a study break that includes the St Patrick’s Day holiday. As a result I got this email this morning.

Obviously it’s an inconvenience for me as I’ll have to find another way to get to Cardiff, but I’ll probably get my money refunded by the Chargeback scheme so it’s not such a big deal. The same can’t be said of the 2000 people who worked for Flybe who have now lost their jobs, nor the many…

View original post 181 more words

Leave a comment »

« Older Entries