In the Dark

Taking a day off. Work-life balance and all that. Still, I am making use of time by catching up on some reading..

No time for a proper post today so I’ll just show a photograph of some of the equipment in our technical workshop. As Head of School I am personally responsible for Health & Safety matters, hence the new signage…

Fascinating detailed analysis of what went wrong with the opinion polls and Labour’s campaign strategy.

Just time for a few comments on the General Election result.

Contrary to the picture painted by nearly all the opinion polls, which indicated an extremely close vote leading to a hung Parliament, it is clear that there will actually be a majority in the House of Commons for the Conservative Party. This isn’t the result I had hoped for, but at least it’s a clear outcome.

One question on my mind is how the opinion polls managed to get it so consistently wrong. They were so wrong, in fact, that most pundits didn’t believe the BBC’s exit poll showing a far stronger Tory voite. TAs it turns out, even the exit poll was an understimate of the Conservative vote. The actual share of the vote is about 37% Conservative to 31% Labour whereas the opinion polls suggested rough parity at 34% each.

It seems to me that there are three distinct (but not exlusive) possible explanations of this, although before discussing them I should point out that a 3% error is within the margin of most opinion polls. Fluctuations of this size were seen during the course of the campaign, but the long term average was pretty consistent, and offset from the actual result.

One explanation is that the turnout was fractionally higher among those who had expressed a preference for the Conservatives than those who had indicated that they would vote Labour. A few percent difference in this would have made a huge difference in key marginal seats. Perhaps the Conservatives just mobilized their voters more effectively. The other explanation is the reappearance of the “shy Tory”. This was generally accepted to be the reason why the opinion polls got it so wrong in the 1992 General Election. People might tell a pollster what they think he/she wants to hear, but actually vote differently when they get to the polling station. The last option is that some people may well change their mind when they see the ballot paper. Opinion polls generally only ask about the party, not the specific candidate. Perhaps seeing the name on the ballot paper makes a small difference?

Whatever the explanation the fact of the matter is that we have a Conservative majority government and whatever we think about that we just have to make the best of it, though I am worried about many things. The future of the National Health Service now hangs in the balance. And the fact that the SNP  won 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland makes me wonder how the United Kingdom can possibly survive much longer. I wouldn’t bet against Scotland being an independent country within a few years at the most. It seems we will also have a referendum on whether to remain inside the EU…

As expected Caroline Lucas held onto her seat in Brighton Pavilion (winning by a very large margin). Labout took Hove by a narrow margin, but Nancy Platts fell just short of ousting Simon Kirby in my own constituency, Brighton Kemptown. Only 600 votes in it. Close, but no cigar for Nancy.

 A dramatic new (insert name of polling organization, e.g. GALLUP) opinion poll has revealed that the (insert name of political party) lead over (insert name of political party) has WIDENED/SHRUNK/NOT CHANGED dramatically. This almost certainly means a (insert name of political party) victory or a hung parliament. This contrasts with a recent (insert name of polling organization, e.g. YOUGOV) poll which showed that the (insert name of political party) lead had WIDENED/SHRUNK/NOT CHANGED which almost certainly meant a (insert name of political party) victory or a hung parliament.

Political observers were quick to point out that we shouldn’t read too much into this poll, as tomorrow’s (insert name of polling organization e.g. COMRES) poll shows the (insert name of political party) lead over (insert name of political party) has WIDENED/SHRUNK/NOT CHANGED dramatically, almost certainly meaning a (insert name of political party) victory or a hung parliament.

Meanwhile, Lord Ashcroft.. (continued, page 94)

Just a quick post to say that I spent today in London with the other Heads of School at Sussex University (or most of them). We met in the British Library Conference Centre, which is next door to St Pancras station. It wasn’t in the library itself, so I wasn’t able to try out the famous echo in the British Library Reading Room…

After leaving that meeting at ten-mile I had another appointment, near this relatively well-known landmark..

I won’t divulge the purpose or location of Meeting B as it’s a bit hush-hush, though not in a bad way…