Archive for The Ashes

Ashes to Ashes…

Posted in Cricket with tags , , , , , , on January 8, 2026 by telescoper

I woke up this quite early this morning but when I checked the cricket scores I discovered that the Fifth Ashes Test between Australia and England at Sydney had already finished. Australia wobbled a bit chasing a modest target, but won in the end by 5 wickets and thereby won the series 4-1. I think that result is a fair reflection of the performance of the two teams and Australia thoroughly deserved to retain the Ashes. England’s victory in Melbourne, on a difficult batting surface, prevented a whitewash and gave them a Test win for the first time since 2010, but none of the other matches were particularly close run. In terms of attendances it was a very successful series – the five days at Sydney broke the record – but the quality of the cricket was very variable, and Australia taking a 3-0 lead after three games made the last two Tests feel rather irrelevant.

It was a particularly disappointing series for England, who must have thought they had a better chance of winning than for a long time. Australia were without key players, especially Josh Hazlewood and captain Pat Cummins (the latter only played one Test). On top of that, England captain Ben Stokes won four of the five tosses. Winning the toss at Sydney, as Stoke did, could have set up an interesting contest had England scored enough runs when they batted first (although they lacked a world-class spinner who could have won the match). Call me old-fashioned, but one of the things I enjoy best about cricket is seeing a high-quality spinner in action. Australia didn’t have one at Sydney either, Lyons having been injured.

England of course had their own injury difficulties during the tour, losing two fast bowlers in Mark Wood and Jofra Archer early in the tour. Of the replacement bowlers, Josh Tongue looked the best – and most likely to take wickets in Australian conditions – but Stokes seemed reluctant to let him open the bowling.

As it turned out, Mitchell Starc (Man of the Series) led the second-string of Austalian bowlers extremely well. It is also worth mentioning Michael Neser, a bowling all-rounder who has played for Glamorgan, who stepped into the breach and doing well with the ball. Other Glamorgan Australians Marnus Labuschagne and Usman Khawaja did not have such a successful series; the latter has now retired from Test cricket.

Jamie Smith playing an idiotic shot against the bowling of Marnus Labuschagne

I didn’t see much of the cricket – only highlights – but it seems to me there was a crucial difference in the fielding. England dropped far too many catches, including easy ones, while Australia held onto some stunners. England’s batters also had a tendency to play stupid shots at important times. I’m thinking primarly of Jamie Smith’s dismissal off the innocuous bowling of Marnus Labuschagne, which was calamitous, but there were others. Above all, though, I think the first few matches revealed England’s preparation to have been completely inadequate. Questions should be asked not only of the squad selection but also of the management of the tour, especially the lack of practice matches.

On the bright side (for England), Joe Root scored his first Test century in Australia and then scored his second. Jacob Bethell who is only 22, scored a fine century in the final Test at Sydney. I’ve read articles praising him, but didn’t see much evidence in the stats to justify their opinion. Now he’s shown what he can do in the Test arena, I wonder if he will turn out to be a successor to Root?

Anyway, that’s the Ashes done and dusted (so to speak). By the time of the next Ashes series Australia (2029/2030) I will have retired. Although I’ve been to Sydney, I’ve never visited Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide or Melbourne. Now there’s an idea

P.S. I was slightly surprised that Mitchell Starc was Man of the Series. Travis Head scored 629 runs, which was to my mind even more impressive. Still, this award is ample compensation:

The England Cricket Team – Another Apology

Posted in Cricket with tags , , , on September 8, 2019 by telescoper

I’m sure that I wasn’t the only person who reacted to England being bowled out for a paltry 67 in the first innings of the Third Ashes Test at Headingley by concluding that the England batsmen were hopelessly inept, that they would certainly lose the match, that the team had absolutely no chance of regaining the Ashes, and that Joe Root should be sacked as England captain.

But after their subsequent one-wicket victory in that match inspired by Ben Stokes, I thought I was wrong, and apologised unreservedly to Joe Root and the England team for having doubted their ability.

Now, after being comprehensively outplayed at Old Trafford, losing by 185 runs, and allowing Australia to retain the Ashes I realise that my previous apology was incorrect, that England’s cricketers are actually inept, and that Joe Root should indeed be sacked as England captain.

I hope this clarifies the situation.

Boris Johnson is 55.

The England Cricket Team – An Apology

Posted in Cricket with tags , , on August 25, 2019 by telescoper

I’m sure that I’m not the only person who reacted to England being bowled out for a paltry 67 in the first innings of the Third Ashes Test at Headingley by concluding that the England batsmen were hopelessly inept, that they would certainly lose the match, that the team had absolutely no chance of regaining the Ashes, and that Joe Root should be sacked as England captain.

However, after today’s exciting one-wicket victory inspired by Ben Stokes, I now realise that I was wrong, and that the England first innings was a cunning ploy to lure the Australians into a false sense of security before seizing control in the second innings.

I apologise unreservedly to Joe Root and the England team for having so obviously misunderstood their tactics.

I hope this clarifies the situation.

Geoffrey Boycott is 78 (not out).

Test Odds

Posted in Cricket with tags , , on August 24, 2009 by telescoper

I’m very grateful to Daniel Mortlock for sending me this fascinating plot. It comes from the cricket pages of The Times Online and it shows how the probability of the various possible outcomes of the Final Ashes Test at the Oval evolved with time according to their “Hawk-Eye Analysis”.

pastedGraphic

 I think I should mention that Daniel is an Australian supporter, so this graph must make painful viewing for him! Anyway, it’s a fascinating plot, which I read as an application of Bayesian probability.

At the beginning of the match, a prior probability is assigned to each of the three possible outcomes: England win (blue); Australia win (yellow); and Draw (grey). It looks like these are roughly in the ratio 1:2:2. No details are given as to how these were arrived at, but it must have taken into account the fact that Australia thrashed England in the previous match at Headingley. Information from previous Tests at the Oval was presumably also included.I don’t know if the fact that England won the toss and decided to bat first altered the prior odds significantly, but it should have.

Anyway, what happens next depends on how sophisticated a model is used to determine the subsequent evolution of the  probabilities. In good Bayesian fashion, information is incorporate in a likelihood function determined by the model and this is used to update the  prior  to produce a posterior probability. This is passed on as a prior for  the next time step. And so it goes on until the end of the match where, regardless of what prior is chosen, the data force the model to the correct conclusion.

The red dots show the fall of wickets, but the odds fluctuate continually in accord with variables such as scoring rate, number of wickets,  and, presumably, the weather. Some form of difference equation is clearly being used, but we don’t know the details.

England got off to a pretty good start, so their probability to win started to creep up, but not by all that much, presumably because the model didn’t think their first-innings total of 332 was enough against a good batting side like Australia. However, the odds of a draw fell more significantly as a result of fairly quick scoring and the lack of any rain delays.

When the Australians batted they were going well at the start so England’s probability to win started to fall and theirs to rise. But when they started to lose quick wickets (largely to Stuart Broad), the blue and yellow trajectories swap over and England became favourites by a large margin. Despite a wobble when they lost 3 early wickets and some jitters when Australia’s batsmen put healthy partnerships together, England remained the more probable to win from that point to the end.

Although it all basically makes some sense, there are some curiosities.  Daniel Mortlock asked, for example, whether Australia were  really as likely to win at about 200 for 2 on the fourth day as  England were when Australia were 70 without loss in the first innings?  That’s what the graph seems to say. His reading of this is that too much stock is placed in the difficulty of   breaking a big (100+ runs) parnership, as the curves seem to   “accelerate” when the batsmen seem to be doing well.

I wonder how new information is included in general terms. Australia’s poor first innings batting (160 all out) in any case only reduced their win probability to about the level that England started at. How was their batting in the first innings balanced against their performance in the last match?

I’d love to know more about the algorithm used in this analysis, but I suspect it is copyright. There may be a good reason for not disclosing it. I have noticed in recent years that bookmakers have been setting extremely parsimonious odds for cricket outcomes. Gone are the days (Headingley 1981) when bookmakers offered 500-1 against England to beat Australia, which they then proceeded to do. In those days the bookmakers relied on expert advisors to fix their odds. I believe it was the late Godfrey Evans who persuaded them to offer 500-1. I’m not sure if they ever asked him again!

The system on which Hawkeye is based is much more conservative. Even on the last day of the test, odds against an Australian victory remained around 4-1 until they were down to their last few wickets. Notice also that the odds on a draw were never as long against as they should have been either, when that outcome was clearly virtually impossible. On the morning of the final day I could only find 10-1 against the draw which I think is remarkably ungenerous. However, even with an England victory a near certainty you could still find odds like 1-4. It seems like the system doesn’t like to produce extremely long or extremely short odds.

Perhaps the bookies are now using analyses like this to set their odds, which explains why betting on cricket isn’t as much fun as it used to be. On the other hand, if the system is predisposed against very short odds then maybe that’s the kind of bet to make in order to win. Things like this may be why the algorithm behind Hawkeye isn’t published…