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Phase 1 Commences

Posted in Biographical, Covid-19 on May 18, 2020 by telescoper

So here we are then. Phase One of the relaxation of Ireland’s Covid-19 restrictions begins today. The focus will be on the extent to which people continue to follow the rules while the modest loosening of restrictions takes place.

Here is the most recent log plot summarising the Covid-19 epidemic in Ireland. I’m keeping track of the numbers here.

Yesterday only 64 new cases were reported, the lowest since mid-March, along with 10 deaths.

Here is a plot of new cases on a linear scale so you can see the decline more easily.

And the mortality figures look like this:

Data and explanatory notes can be found here.

The signs are thus optimistic but I think its very sensible to take this in slow stages. It remains perfectly possible for infection to spread again if the remaining precautions are not taken seriously. By and large, though, people have been sensible so far and I’m hopeful.

I shall shortly be attempting to remember where my office is so I can go in and deal with some online assessments.

I suppose it won’t be long until we start getting instructions on how to prepare for Phase 2.

Update: I made it into the Department where I noticed the evidence of the last time I was there!

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Phase 1 Approaches

Posted in Biographical, Covid-19, Education, Maynooth with tags on May 16, 2020 by telescoper

Yesterday (Friday 15th May) the Government of Ireland announced that Phase 1 of the Roadmap for relaxation of its Covid-19 restrictions would commence as planned on Monday 18th May.

This won’t make a huge difference to those people working in third level institutions because it means that anyone who can work from home should continue to do so. As you can see in the graphic above, though, some (limited) access to buildings will be available to allow staff access “to facilitate remote learning”.

Here at Maynooth University our teaching term is over and we’re into the examination period, so there is no actual teaching going on. There are exams, however, and some staff (including myself) will be going onto campus to oversee these, including sitting by their office phones in case of emergency. It is a great relief that we can do this during the examination period as things would have been far more complicated otherwise, especially for those of us who don’t have full internet access at home.

Access for this purpose will be strictly limited and in general the campus is not open. The rules for those coming into campus are quite strict. These are excerpts from the instructions sent out by the University last night:

  • Everyone who can work effectively from home should continue to do so, and non-essential travel should not be undertaken.
  • The campus is not open, and there is no general access, but you may access your office in limited circumstances if you cannot otherwise prepare for or deliver remote teaching and assessment. Approval from your Head of Department is required in all instances.
  • Always observe physical distancing of 2m and ensure thorough hand hygiene. These are key individual responsibilities to minimise the spread of the virus.
  • Employees should wash their hands when they arrive and leave.
  • Essential access will be limited to an individual’s office, provided it is not shared. If you work in a shared office, you should co-ordinate with your colleagues to make sure that you are not there at the same time.
  • There will be no general access to any shared facilities, except toilets. Toilets will be cleaned every evening, but it is the responsibility of every individual to ensure personal hand hygiene on leaving the toilets.
  • Anyone who does require access to their office should make their way directly to their office and avoid congregating in groups. Once the essential work is complete, you should leave the campus directly.

A more general ‘return-to-work’ will start in Phase 2 (in three weeks’ time) but several things related to health and safety will need to be organised before that. In the meantime I expect the Department of Theoretical Physics will continue to be empty apart from occasional visits by myself and one or two other members of staff.

Anyway, we need to take life one phase at a time. My main priority on Monday will be trying to remember where my office is, as I haven’t been there for nine weeks!

P. S. Schools in Ireland will not reopen until the start of the new school year, in August.

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Dream Time

Posted in Art, Biographical, Covid-19, Mental Health with tags , , , , , , on May 13, 2020 by telescoper

The Dream (Salvador Dali, 1931)

I know I’m not alone during this strange and unsettling Coronavirus period in having extraordinarily vivid dreams almost every night.

I’m grateful for two things related to this. One is that I’m sleeping much better than usual, with not a trace of the insomnia I’ve experienced in the past during times of stress. The other is that these dreams are very far from being nightmares. Most of them are benign, and some are laugh-out-loud hilarious.

The other day, for example, I had a dream in which Nigel Farage returned from his recent trip to Dover in search of migrants publicity to find his house filled with asylum seekers singing the theme from The Dambusters. There was also a cameo appearance by Nigella Lawson in that dream but I forget the context.

I’ve written about dreams a few times before (e.g. here) and don’t intend to repeat myself here. It does seem to me however that dreams are probably a byproduct of the unconscious brain’s processing of notable recent events and this activity is heightened because the current times are filled with unfamiliar experiences.

I know some people are having far worse nocturnal experiences than me, and I don’t really understand why I’m having a relatively easy ride when my past history suggests I’d be prime candidate for cracking up. Perhaps I’ve had enough practice at dealing with anxiety in the past (not always very satisfactorily)? Perhaps the sense of detachment I’ve experienced over the past few weeks is part of some sort of defence mechanism I’ve acquired?

Anyway, don’t have nightmares!

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Azed 2500

Posted in Biographical, Crosswords on May 10, 2020 by telescoper

Long before this Covid-19 lockdown started I had been planning to attend a lunch, due to take place last weekend, on Saturday 2nd May, at Wadham College Oxford, in honour of Jonathan Crowther who, under the pseudonym Azed, has been setting cryptic crosswords in the Observer for the best part of 50 years. The occasion for this planned shindig was the publication of the 2500th Azed Crossword. I went to a similar celebration about a decade ago when the 2000th Azed puzzle came out and enjoyed it a lot.

Sadly, but of course understandably, the Azed 2500 lunch was cancelled (or at least postponed until September) but the crossword appeared today (above). It looks a bit tricky, but it will have to wait until later because I have many other things to do.

I haven’t been doing crosswords as regularly as usual during this period. The main reason for that is lack of time and energy caused by my current workload, but it’s also the case that most newspapers are no longer running their competitions: without the possibility of a prize I don’t feel do enthusiastic about solving the puzzles. The Azed Competition is still running, though, so I’ll definitely give this one a go.

Anyway let me take this opportunity to thank Azed for all the challenging yet enjoyable crosswords he has set over the years!

Update: I managed to solve the puzzle, which was indeed tricky: it took me a good couple of hours! Now to compose a clue for 34 across!

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Tsundoku

Posted in Biographical with tags on May 7, 2020 by telescoper

I’m a bit late having my lunch break today because I’ve had so many things to do. That also means I don’t have much time to post much.

I was staring vacantly around my sitting room after eating my sandwich when I noticed this pile of (six) books.

I remember putting those books there a few weeks ago when there there was a little game going around on Twitter based on the Japanese word Tsundoku (積ん読) which means the practice of acquiring reading materials but letting them pile up in one’s home without reading them. I do that a lot, so I’m quite pleased there’s a word for it. The term originated in the Meiji era (1868–1912) as Japanese slang.

The Twitter game involved showing a stack of six books acquired but unread and inviting six others to do likewise. Most of my books are currently unreachable, either in my office in Maynooth University or in storage back in Cardiff, but most of those I do have in my flat in Maynooth are unread because those are the only ones I brought here. This has made it difficult to display an array of books behind myself during Zoom meetings and the like.

I’m not sure I’ll get around to reading any of them any time soon. One of the reasons for that (besides lack of time) is that I really need to get new specs as my eyesight is deteriorating and quite a few of these books have rather small print. I wonder when I’ll be able to have an eye test?

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Matters of Chance

Posted in Biographical, Covid-19, Maynooth with tags , , , on May 5, 2020 by telescoper

Quite a few times on this blog I have acknowledged the tremendous amount of luck I have had all the way through my career, not least that the opportunity which led to my current position in Maynooth came up when exactly when it did.

I was reminded of these theme the other day when someone circulated this excerpt from a book by Max Weber, which reflects on my own experiences.

I remember a conversation I had with Lev Kofman – a far more significant scientist than me – during which he called me a “fucking lucky bastard”. For a moment I thought he was being abusive but then, with a smile, he added “Welcome to (the)* Club”.

Another factor that has undoubtedly played a role in my own career as well as good fortune has been privilege, defined not only in terms of race and social class but also educational and institutional background. Those of us who have benefitted from this are often blind to its influence, preferring to think we achieve things purely on merit.

Nowadays all this talk about luck has taken a new twist. During the Coronavirus crisis my workload and stress levels have gone through the roof. Whenever I feel a bit overwhelmed I tend to reflect on the fact that I’m lucky to still have a job with a steady income at this time when so many have lost theirs.

How much longer this good fortune will last, I don’t know. There are dark rumours circulating about pay cuts, course closures and redundancies having to take place in the financial aftermath of Covid-19. I almost opted for early retirement a couple of years ago. Perhaps soon I’ll have no choice.

*Lev, being Russian, never really got the hang of articles; the definite article in parentheses is my addition.

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Not the Euclid Consortium Meeting

Posted in Biographical, Euclid, Maynooth, The Universe and Stuff with tags , , on May 4, 2020 by telescoper

It’s a bright sunny Bank Holiday Monday and I’m here in my flat in Maynooth taking a coffee break before resuming work from home.

Before the Covid-19 outbreak started I had imagined that I’d be spending this week (or at least most of it) in Sitges near Barcelona for the annual Euclid Consortium Meeting which was planned to take place there. That has understandably been cancelled and replaced with a virtual meeting. Yet more Zoom sessions beckon…

Over the past weeks my workload has increased enormously but I’ve tried to clear the decks a little so I can tune in to some of the sessions but I won’t be able to make them all or even most.

I hope the virtual meeting goes well. Euclid is due to be launched in 2022 so time is getting short and there is much preparatory work still to do.

Well, talking of work I better get back to it! The first plenary is not until this afternoon and I’ve lots to do before then.

I wonder if normality will have returned in time for there to be a Euclid Consortium Meeting next year?

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Testing YouTube

Posted in Biographical, mathematics, YouTube with tags , , on May 3, 2020 by telescoper

To do something a bit different during this Covid-19 lockdown I decided to set up my very own YouTube channel to which you may (or may not) wish to subscribe.

I’m new to this so I posted a short video to test how it works. It’s a little video explainer about Cramer’s Rule in linear algebra I made using Screencast-o-matic. I’ve done a lot of these over the past few weeks but they’re not what the channel is about: I posted this example is just to try out the system (mainly to see how long the upload would take).

I put this up yesterday and I’ve already amassed five subscribers so I’m well on the way to becoming a YouTube sensation. I may even become viral so please ensure that you practice social distancing while watching the videos.

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The 5km Limit

Posted in Biographical, Covid-19, Maynooth with tags , , , on May 2, 2020 by telescoper

Since the Covid-19 restrictions were imposed over a month ago I’ve been confined to within a 2km radius of my home.

Yesterday, however, the Taioseach Leo Varadkar announced that is being relaxed to a 5km limit. Eager to see what thrilling new horizons would unfold as a result of this announcement I checked on a phone app and found this:

Great. So now I can visit a little bit of Leixlip, a little bit of Celbridge, or an even smaller bit of Kilcock.

I can barely contain my excitement.

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Mayday!

Posted in Biographical, Covid-19, Maynooth with tags , , on May 1, 2020 by telescoper

Today, 1st May, Beltane (Bealtaine in Irish) is an old Celtic festival that marks the mid-point between the Spring Equinox and the Summer Solstice. It’s one of the so-called Cross-Quarter Days that lie exactly halfway between the equinoxes and solstices. These ancient festivals have been moved so that they take place earlier in the modern calendar than the astronomical events that represent their origin: the halfway point between the Spring Equinox and Summer Solstice is actually next week…

Anyway, let me offer a hearty ‘Lá Bealtaine sona daoibh‘!

Today is also the day that the Irish Government decides whether to extend the restrictions arising from the Covid-19 outbreak due to end on May 5th (May 4th is a Bank Holiday). All the signs are that they will and indeed that they should.

We are told that the decision will be based on five measures.

The ‘criteria’ being quoted are:

  1. the progress of the disease;
  2. healthcare capacity & resilience;
  3. testing & contact tracing capacity;
  4. ability to shield & care for at-risk groups;
  5. the risk of secondary morbidity & mortality due to the restrictions themselves.

These aren’t really criteria of course as they don’t set a standard by which performance will be measured. My own amateurish attempts to keep track of the data show that while new cases are falling slowly (the value of the R-number is in the range 0.5-0.8) the rate of deaths remains roughly constant:

If you look at the world data on Covid-19 you will see that it’s a global phenomenon that the timescale for the spread to decrease is much longer than that for the initial increase. That means that loosening control too early will simply precipitate another rapid spread which in turn will require another lengthy lockdown.

The rate of hospital and ICU admissions is not falling significantly either. This may be because over the past weeks an increasing number of infections have occurred in care homes among elderly patients who are much more vulnerable to serious illness than the general population.

I can’t see any evidence from this that would support an argument for starting to end the lockdown anytime soon, and that’s before considering the other points. Testing, for example, is definitely not yet up to speed.

When it first started I told my colleagues that it wouldn’t start to unwind until June and I’m sticking with that.

It’s worrying though that there are signs that some individuals are taking it upon themselves to relax the restrictions. There is definitely more traffic (both vehicular and pedestrian) than there was a few weeks ago here in Maynooth. The question arises that if the lockdown is extended will it just become less effective as more people flout it? I think if it is going to be extended the Gardaí will have to get much tougher.

Although I’m very worried by the prospect of things dragging on I do at least get the impression that the Irish Government is doing its best not only to deal with Covid-19 but also to be honest about the situation, to the extent of owning up to its failures. The situation is very different on the other side of the Irish Sea, where the daily UK Government briefings are transparent only in their abject dishonesty.

UPDATE: to nobody’s great surprise the current restrictions will stay in place until 18th May, after which there will be a phased relaxation. For more details see here.

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